Research On The Influence Prediction Of Academic Papers And Academic Journals Based On Regression Models

With the advent of the era of information explosion,academic exchanges are more extensive and convenient,and academic papers and journals play an increasingly important role in the dissemination and development of science.On November 18,2010,the United Nations launched the global initiative of "academic influence",and the academic circle is increasingly concerned about the quality of scientific papers and academic journals and their influence in academic circles.Academic paper is one of the important materialized forms of scientific research achievements,and it is also an important evaluation reference for the countries and scientific and technological level,academic level and scientific research ability of individuals.We can assess the influence of academic papers through various indicators,but the peak period of the paper's citation is usually three to five years after the publication of the paper.When the paper has just been published or published within one or two years,it is difficult to predict how the recent academic papers influence because of the time delay of the cited papers.Therefore,by constructing a predictive model of academic paper influence,it can help to discover potential papers Academic journal is an important window and platform to show the scientific research ability and academic level of a country,an institution or a discipline.It is also an academic carrier to promote scientific progress.Various disciplines form academic journals forums centered on this subject,and make use of academic journals as media to exchange knowledge and knowledge between disciplines and disciplines.Therefore,it is very important to evaluate and predict the impact of academic journals.The main research contents of this paper are mainly divided into two parts,which are the influence prediction of academic papers and the influence prediction of academic journals.First of all,in terms of influence prediction of academic papers :(1)to explore the factors influencing the academic influence,build the feature space and put forward the corresponding characteristic index,the feature space consists of four parts: the external features,the authors cited characteristics,characteristics and the characteristics of the journal;(2)the correlation analysis on the academic characteristics,draw each other the relationship between the academic influence of various characteristics,and through the backward regression analysis showed that the academic impact of large contribution index,build regression model,to analyze and forecast the academic papers of Chinese Library and information science field effect.Secondly,in terms of influence prediction of academic journals :(1)According to the influence of academic periodical influence evaluation system of academic journals and “Annual Report for Chinese Academic Journal Impact Factors”,the research proposes evaluation index factor of academic journals influence,mainly divided into four aspects,namely the index of academic journal impact factor,citation index,publishing index and network communication index;(2)The correlation analysis of evaluation index academic journal,the relationship between academic journals influence of each evaluation index,and through regression analysis and curve fitting,constructing curve prediction model,forecast the next period of time the field of Library and Information Science in China Academic Journal influence may reach the level of the index to the model.The research results show that the characteristics of academic papers and the evaluation indexes of academic journals are reasonable,the academic paper and the influence prediction model of academic journals are effective.The significance of this study lies in:(1)Through the prediction of the influence of academic papers,it can help researchers to improve the quality of papers and the efficiency of the use of papers in a targeted manner;(2)The prediction of academic periodical influence,to avoid the calculation of complex data collection and journal evaluation index data release lag,help researchers to predict the future impact of academic journals in a simple and timely manner.