The Change Of The Center Of Gravity Of China's Floating Population And The Analysis Of Its Influencing Factors

Over the past 40 years since the reform and opening up,China's economy,society,science and technology have undergone tremendous and profound changes.The phenomenon of population movements has also changed.The inter-regional population mobility has already rapidly converged into a rolling torrent from streams.The ever-changing size and flow of the floating population indicates that there are still many uncertainties in the future of China's migrant population.The floating people has already and will continue to have many realistic and potential impacts on the outflow and inflow.In this context,based on the analysis of the basic characteristics of population size,gender and age structure,the causes and trends of population mobility,this paper further studies the changing process of China's mobile population's center of gravity and predicts the focus of China's mobile population in the next few years.The direction of change and the intensity of change,to explore what kind of impact this change will have on China's economic and social development,and then consider the countermeasures.The study found:First,China's population movements tend to be inland,and there is a growing trend.Since 2013,the size of China's floating population has remained between 2.40 and 250 million people.In the short term,China's total floating population will remain within this range and there will be no major fluctuations.The proportion of floating population in the four major regions of eastern,central,western and northeastern China has remained stable.The eastern region is still the main region for the inflow of migrants.At the same time,the floating population flowing to the central and western regions has gradually increased,indicating that China's population flows inland.The tendency to change.Second,China's floating population began to shift from a single center to a multi-center aggregation model.At the beginning of reform and opening up,the old industrial base in Northeast China was China's heavy equipment and equipment manufacturing base.The industrial enterprises there attracted more floating population.Therefore,the old industrial base in Northeast China was the center of China's floating population.In 1992,Deng Xiaoping published the "Southern Tour Speech".The intensity of reform and opening up has been continuously increased,and the rapid economic growth in the eastern region has been promoted.At this time,China's mobile population center has turned from the old industrial base in Northeast China to the Pearl River Delta.With the development of China's economy,the Yangtze River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have developed rapidly like the Pearl River Delta,attracting a large number of floating population.Slowly,China's floating population has gathered from a single center in the Pearl River Delta to the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin.The transformation of the multi-center aggregation model in the Pearl River Delta.Third,China's floating population size and spatial distribution pattern have basically stabilized,which means that the trajectory change range of China's mobile population center of gravity has become smaller,and the migration intensity of the floating population's center of gravity has gradually weakened.According to the trend of the shift of the gravity of the floating population in China and the trend of the shift of the population of the province and the province,this paper predicts that the center of gravity of the floating population in China will remain basically unchanged in the longitude direction,and the annual average speed will not exceed 0.86km/year,and will still be in the latitude direction.West Mobile,the average annual moving speed does not exceed 6.04 km / year.Fourth,according to the fitting results of the spatial error model,it can be seen that the average wage level of the employees in the inflowing land is the main factor affecting the inflow of the floating population,followed by the per capita GDP of the inflowing land,which in turn is the number of schools in the inflowing high school.The general budgetary fiscal expenditures flowing into the land,as well as the administrative level of the inflowing land,can be seen from the results.The pursuit of economic goals is still the ultimate goal of population mobility,but the degree of social development has also become a strong driving force for attracting migrants.