The Empirical Analysis Of The Scale Of China Provincial Resident Floating Population In 2000-2010 Year

Since the reform and opening, a growing number of floating population in our country has become the focus of social attention. The large-scale floating population is the result of institutional change and economic transformation. Deregulation of the floating population is the direct cause of population movements, the gap between the level of economic development between regions is the deeper reason. The large-scale population movements affecting the labor resources at the provincial inter-domain configuration, affect the development and urbanization of China’s economy. The Third Plenary Session of Eighteenth clearly put up reform of registered permanent residence management system and make more innovation in the administration of the floating population. Therefore, it is necessary to further investigate the scale of labor mobility between provinces in the domain, but also provide data to support better job employment of migrants, children’s education, social security and other aspects.In this paper, the fifth census data for the explanatory variables, the sixth census data to be the interpreted variables to establish spatial econometric model, we can estimate the provincial population in 2010. The difference between the estimated value and the sixth census value is an estimate of the net inter-provincial migrants scale from 2000 to 2010. Due to the spatial distribution of population, when the provincial population as an object model analysis, we must take into account this spatial correlation. Spatial econometric model takes into account the spatial correlation of population distribution, suitable for the study of this article. Current research on the floating population mostly analyze the data of population census or 1% population sampling. Such data is the result of the accumulation of all previous years. In this paper with the methods of spatial econometric model, we statistically studied the scale of china provincial resident floating population within a period.Population aged 20-59 is main workforce in social economic development. For the population aged 20-59 in 2010 year, based on the fifth and sixth China population census data, build spatial error model to analyze the size and structure of net floating population. The result shows, more floating population moved into the provinces in eastern region from the ones in the Middle region and west region. The net floating population size is different between different age groups. For a comparison, the province net floating population aged 20-29 has large size, the ones aged 30-49 has medium size, the ones aged 50-59 has the least size. The province with more net inflow population and the ones with more net outflow population are not always the same one for different aged group.