Research On The Network Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Chinese Floating Population

According to the data of the seventh population census,China’s floating population is 375.82 million,accounting for 26% of the total population.In 2022,China will have negative population growth at the end of the year for the first time.Large population movements and a decline in absolute numbers have intensified regional competition for human resources.Population flow is essentially the spatial re-optimal allocation of labor,which affects the economic development level of the inflow and outflow areas,and the study of population flow is conducive to guiding the scientific flow of population,which is of great significance to the rational allocation of labor resources between regions and the coordinated development between regions.Population movement links the place of household registration of migrants with their current place of residence,forming a complete social network.The use of social network analysis can establish the inter-provincial population flow link in China,and take the population flow as a whole network,which can not only analyze its overall characteristics,but also reveal the role and status of each province in population flow.Different from the existing literature,this paper adds block model analysis to the analysis of the population flow network,divides the provinces in the network into different plates,and analyzes the population flow relationship within and between the plates,so as to understand the internal structure of the population flow network more comprehensively.Population flow is closely related to factors such as the economic level and social development of the inflow and outflow areas,and grasping the degree of influence of each factor on population flow is conducive to improving the efficiency of human resource allocation.With the help of social network analysis method,based on the cross-provincial floating population data of "five-person population","six-person population" and "seven-person population",the status of each province in population flow is clarified through central indicators,and the mobile network is divided into plates by block model analysis.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)There is a certain spatial orientation in the population flow network,population flow from west to east,western China is the main area of population outflow,and eastern China is an important area for population gathering.(2)Among the provinces and cities with population flow relations,Guangdong Province is in the position of intermediary hub,plays a key "bridge" role in population flow,and has a greater impact on the population flow network.(3)The relationship between population inflow and outflow areas such as Beijing,Shanghai and Jiangsu is small.The gravitational model is used to study the influencing factors of population flow,the number of floating population between the two regions is used as the explanatory variable,and the distance between regions,population size,per capita GDP,tertiary production ratio,unemployment rate,whether it is the eastern region and other factors are used as explanatory variables for regression analysis,and the data studied are from the census bulletin and the statistical yearbook of the corresponding year.According to the social network analysis,the eastern part is the population agglomeration area,so whether the inflow place and the outflow place are the eastern region are introduced into the model as dummy variables.Finally,the two-stage Heckman regression analysis and substitution variable method were used to test the robustness of the model to ensure the reliability of the regression model.The main conclusions are:(1)Population size has a positive impact on population outflow and inflow.Every 1% increase in the size of the resident population will lead to an increase of 1.36% in the outflow population and 0.88% in the inflow population.Every 1% increase in distance leads to a 0.92%decrease in the migrant population.(2)The economic level of the place of inflow has a greater impact on the flow of population than the place of outflow.Every 1% increase in per capita GDP leads to a 0.11% decline in outflow and a 0.46% increase in inflow population.This suggests that regions with higher GDP per capita and higher levels of economic development are more likely to promote population mobility.Every 1%increase in the proportion of tertiary production can reduce population outflow by 0.73%and increase population inflow by 0.4%.(3)The employment environment has a positive impact on the inflow of population.Every 1 per cent increase in the unemployment rate will result in a 0.35% decrease in the inflow population and an increase in the outflow population by 0.14%,and the employment environment in areas with lower unemployment rate is relatively good and more attractive to the inflow of people.This paper finds that China’s population flow mainly concentrates in the eastern region,which makes the eastern region a population flow dividend area,and a large number of population inflows will lead to the management problems of the inflow area.However,the population outflow in the central and western regions is large-scale,and the loss of population will hinder the development of the local economy,thereby aggravating the imbalance of development between regions in China.Therefore,this paper improves the industrial structure of the outflow of the population,increases the local employment rate and income level,and increases the attractiveness of the population.Strengthen the construction of areas of population emigration to attract labor to nearby or return to their hometowns for employment;Suggestions were put forward in the areas where the population inflow should rationally plan urban construction and improve the carrying capacity of the population.