| China’s Reform and opening had opened the "opportunity window" of the "demographic dividend",so that the rich labor resources in China can full exert their value and provide labor factors for the sustained and rapid economic growth.Sichuan is the fourth largest province of population,which has a large number of labor output.In 2016,there were82 million and 620 thousand people living in Sichuan,next only to Guangdong,Shandong and Henan provinces,and more than 10 million people live out of Sichuan.On the new era,the changes in the population policy and the economic environment have caused new changes in the labor force,and the scale,quality,structure and regional flow of the labor force have new characteristics.The present stage is the key period for Sichuan’s economic development and industrial structure upgrading.In the province "13th Five-Year" plan,it is clear that the future of Sichuan’s economic development should rely on innovation driven,industrial development should be integrated with industrialization and information,and the industrial development in the period of 13 th Five-Year reaches the middle and high level.The upgrading of industrial structure needs production factors as support,the change of labor force,as an important factor of production,will influence the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.This paper focuses on the theme of the labor force change’ influence to industrial structure upgrading in Sichuan province.It examines labor changes from four dimensions of labor scale,quality,age structure and labor flow,and studies the effects of these changes on industrial structure upgrading.First of all,combing the relevant literature and theory,on this basis,it analyzes the impact path of labor force changes on the upgrading of industrial structure.Then it analyzes the status of labor force change in Sichuan province and the characteristics of industrial structure upgrading,and uses panel data to do empirical analysis to verify the impact of labor scale,quality,age structure and labor mobility on industrial structure upgrading,and further analyze the effect of human capital structure and high quality labor flow.In the study,taking into account the differences in labor force and industrial development between different regions,this paper studies Sichuan’s five majoreconomic zones respectively.On the basis of empirical analysis,syudying the future trend of labor supply and demand in Sichuan and the matching of labor force and industrial structure.Finally,the conclusions of this study are summarized,and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward based on the actual situation of Sichuan.The conclusion is that the quantity of labor supply in Sichuan has a decreasing trend,the aging problem of age structure is becoming more and more prominent,but the quality of labor force and the mobility of labor force is increasing year by year.After decades of development,the upgrading effect of Sichuan industrial structure is remarkable,but compared with the developed areas,the labor productivity of the first industry is low,and the development of non-agricultural industry is lagging behind.The change of labor force will affect the upgrading of industrial structure,the decrease of labor force has a negative impact on the upgrading of industrial structure,and the improvement of labor quality has a promotion on the upgrading of industrial structure.From the view of human capital structure,the primary human capital has a negative impact on the upgrading of industrial structure,but the middle and high human capital structure have positive impact,and the high human capital structure has the greatest impact.The change in the age structure of labor will affect the upgrading of industrial structure,the decrease of the proportion of young labor force and the increase of the proportion of the old labor force is not conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure.The net inflow of labor force is beneficial to the upgrading of the regional industrial structure,on the contrary,The net outflow of power hinders the upgrading of regional industrial structure.Sichuan is a large province with a net outflow of labor force,so labor outflow is not conducive to upgrading the industrial structure.The inflow of high quality labor force can promote the upgrading of industrial structure,but compared with the eastern region,the economic development of Sichuan is lagging behind,and the attraction of high quality labor force is weak.In different regions,there are significant differences in the impact of labor force changes on the upgrading of industrial structure in the five major economic zones of Sichuan province.In the future,based on the view of industrial structure upgrading and economic development,the imbalance of supply and demand of labor force in Sichuan province will be further deteriorated,and the matching of employment structure and industrial structure should beoptimized.These problems will affect the quality and speed of industrial structure upgrading.In order to promote the development of high quality and industrial structure,Sichuan can continue to promote the process of urbanization,increase the construction of public infrastructure and public service expenditure,and improve the attraction to high quality labor.At the same time,we should increase investment in human capital and education expenditure to increase human capital accumulation,and provide talent support for industrial upgrading.Then formulate corresponding population policy and guide the rational flow of population.Finally,taking into account the differences in Sichuan Province,we will develop corresponding industries based on local endowments to promote the optimal distribution of industrial space. |
