Research On The Causal Factors Of Road Traffic Accidents Based On HFACS

The number of deaths caused by road traffic accidents worldwide reaches 1.25 million annually,which has become the ninth leading cause of death.It is a long way to go to prevent,reduce and curb road traffic accidents.Scholars at home and abroad have done a lot of work on accident models,causation factors,and driver behavior management,and have made positive progress.However,there are still some shortcomings in the system accident model construction,the quantitative measurement of the interaction between the causation factors,and the research methods of road traffic accidents.Firstly,this paper reviews the current situation of road traffic accidents research through bibliometrics tools and provides directional guidance for further research;secondly,establishes a causation factors classification framework of road traffic accidents based on the systematic method HFACS(human factors analysis and classification system)and identifies key causation factors;then quantitatively measures the relationships between causation factors;thirdly,quantitatively evaluates the role of government regulators in road traffic accidents;and finally analyzes the effects of risk preference and risk perception on risky driving behaviors,and explores the moderating role of some demographic variables.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)The research of road traffic accidents mainly focuses on five aspects: “accident cause,” “accident analysis,” “health & injury,” “safety management,” and “road traffic.” Among them,“accident cause” is the largest cluster and is the main battlefield in this field.Risk perception and systems-based approaches are emerging topics in the “accident cause”and “accident analysis,” respectively.(2)Each component of the road traffic system is a whole.By introducing the system accident model HFACS,a classification framework for causation factors of road traffic accidents is established,the qualitative and systematic analysis of the accident causes is carried out,which provide a theoretical framework for the following analysis.The classification framework includes 5 levels(unsafe behaviors,precondition for unsafe behaviors,unsafe supervision,organizational influences and outside factors),15 subcategories and 64 indicators.The frequencies of “unsafe behaviors,” “violations,” and “inadequate government regulation” are the highest in 5 levels,15 subcategories,and 64 indicators.(3)An important idea of HFACS is that one of the five levels will affect the next level.This paper quantitatively measures the relationships between causation factors at adjacent levels in the entire system framework.Identify several paths at the highest level(outside factors)that cause errors and violations at the first level(unsafe behaviors).These paths can determine the important relationships between human factors in the causes of road traffic accidents and provide a “road map” for preventing road traffic accidents.(4)The view of HFACS is that each level only affects the next level.This method simplifies the causes of accidents by ignoring the complex interactions between system components.This study considers the relationships between cross-level causation factors in the entire system.The following model is proposed: government regulation in outside factors not only affects organizational influences,but also predicts unsafe supervision,precondition for unsafe behaviors,and unsafe behaviors.(5)Unsafe behaviors directly cause accidents,and risk preference and risk perception have significant effects on individual behaviors.At the same time,the expected utility theory believes that the interaction between risk preference and risk perception also affects individual behaviors.By introducing variables such as risk preference,risk perception and their interaction,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of risky driving behaviors and discusses whether gender,age and driving age have moderating effects.