Influencing Factors And Trend Forecast Of Passenger Throughput Of Shanghai Civil Aviation Airport

In recent years,China's economic development has promoted the improvement of people's living standard.People's choice of travel mode has also changed.The civil aviation industry has attracted more and more attention due to its advantages such as speed,safety and comfort.With the increase of traffic pressure,a higher demand for the capacity of civil aviation airports is raised.At the same time,CAAC has undergone many changes in the last century.The emphasis is on the reform of airport ownership.It also raises the wave of civil aviation airport construction.Accordingly,the supply and demand at both ends are growing rapidly,making the balance between supply and demand become more and more difficult based on the old way and the old experience.Therefore,a more urgent need for a scientific,accurate and quantifiable prediction model of civil aviation passenger throughput is also put forward.In view of the civil aviation airport passenger throughput is based on a multi factor interaction generated under the data,the effect of various factors and analysis of multiple linear regression model and can better carry out qualitative and quantitative,so this paper based on multivariate linear regression,using SPSS as the auxiliary tool software of civil aviation passenger traffic analysis.First of all,the development trend of China and the United States airport passenger throughput was studied through comparing data gathered respectively analyzes the features of its main characteristics,and on this basis,the paper describes the main factors affecting the civil aviation passenger throughput,and the factors are analyzed.After that,this paper carried out the multiple linear regression model to forecast the example of Shanghai airport passenger throughput based on principal component analysis method,and then use the model to alleviate the multi-collinearity problem in the model was modified,then use Neural Networks model to verify the prediction results,and finally more accurate model.This prediction method not only takes account of the socio-economic impact factors of airports,but also introduces the development level of tourism,population growth and related industries.