Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of China’s Civil Aviation Passenger Volume And Modeling Forecast

With the rapid and high-quality development of China’s economy and the continuous improvement of transportation facilities and infrastructure,people have more diversified choices in transportation and our civil aviation industry has also ushered in a broader market.However,there are many factors that affect the development of the civil aviation industry,and the main body of the civil aviation industry must be targeted if they want to seize the opportunity to accelerate development to meet the increasing demand for aviation travel of the China’s people.Therefore,the research and analysis of the factors affecting the development of the civil aviation industry are particularly important.This article is based on the 30 years of China’s civil aviation passenger traffic from1990 to 2019 selected from the China Transportation Yearbook and the website of the National Bureau of Statistics and its 14 influencing factors data,using gray correlation analysis to calculate the gray correlation degree,and use it as a level analysis The French scoring standard constructs a pairwise comparison judgment matrix,which analyzes and explains the degree of correlation and influence between China’s civil aviation passenger traffic and its influencing factors.In order to understand the future development trend of China’s civil aviation passenger traffic data,this paper also uses the gray forecast model to forecast the civil aviation passenger traffic accordingly.The analysis results show that the top 7 influencing factors of China’s civil aviation passenger traffic and its 14 influencing factors are per capita GDP,resident consumption level,civil vehicle ownership,gross national income,civil aviation route mileage,general colleges and universities The degree of influence of the number of graduates and the number of inbound tourists was 21.50%,20.58%,18.89%,10.39%,5.07%,5.07% and 3.02%,respectively.It is found that the macroeconomic indicators have a greater impact on the passenger volume of civil aviation,and the relationship is closer.In the subsequent prediction model establishment,this paper divides the 30 years of China’s civil aviation passenger traffic data from 1990 to 2019 into two parts,using the first 25 years of data as the training set,and the last 5 years of data as the test set,establishing GM(1,1)Forecast model.Among them,the relative errors of prediction on the test set are 4.6%,5.4%,5.2%,6.9%,and 11.8%,and the average relative error is6.7%,while the average relative error of the training set is about 7.0%,and the average relative errors of the two parts are both Less than 10%,the GM(1,1)prediction model successfully passed the model accuracy test.Finally,the GM(1,1)prediction model is used to predict the passenger traffic data of China’s civil aviation from 2020 to 2022.The prediction results show that China’s civil aviation passenger traffic will be 832.16 million in 2020,938.36 million in 2021,and in 2022 It will exceed 1 billion for the first time,reaching 1,058.12 million passengers.Through the research of this article,it can provide corresponding theoretical basis for relevant governments to formulate civil aviation development policies.It is also conducive to the improvement of the profit structure and optimization of the operation mode of the main body of China’s civil aviation industry.