Study On Analysis Of Influencing Factors And Forecast Of Route Passenger Flow Of Civil Aviation

The expected route passenger flow is the primary basis for airlines to schedule flight plans.It is also essential for civil transport airports and civil aviation management departments to allocate airport flight schedule resources.This paper focuses on the existing routes in regular operation and the newly opened routes in stable operation in the initial stage.The influencing factors and forecasting methods of these two routes are studied respectively to effectively predict the short-term passenger flow.The investigation is practical and significant in the operation and management of the civil aviation industry.Firstly,the historical data of the existing routes of the representative cities are selected among the four major urban agglomerations in China.The feasibility of predicting short-term passenger flow by applying the Holt exponential smoothing method is verified.By analyzing the forecast error,the opening of high-speed railway parallel to air routes may influence the development tendency of passenger flow of existing routes,which reduces the prediction accuracy of such models.Combined with the data of the opening time of relevant high-speed railway,the PSM-DID model is used to quantitatively evaluate the impact of opening high-speed rail on existing routes on the same transport corridor.The results show that after the opening of high-speed rail,existing routes were often faced with severe competitive pressures and reduced annual passenger flow by 14.4% on average.This negative effect is most pronounced for short and medium trips.Bu in the long-distance travel over 1,600 kilometers,civil aviation could attract more tourists because the catchments of the airport has been broadened by connecting with the high-speed railway,which has the advantage of short-distance transportation.Further,the analysis of the influencing factors is carried out on the passenger flow of some stable operating routes in the initial stage of all new airports in China mainland in2017 and 2018.According to the four levels and nineteen factors that may affect the passenger flow in the second year of route operation,the importance of all factors is evaluated based on the random forest.The results show that the transportation capacity resources invested by airlines and airports and the level of regional socio-economic development significantly impact the passenger flow in the second year of air route operation.Based on the above,seven core influencing factors involving three levels are further screened.Finally,based on the ε-SVR model,a new route passenger flow prediction model is established with influencing factors.The feasibility and performance of prediction are verified by using the passenger flow data in 2019.The model is compared with the multiple linear regression,nearest neighbor regression,and decision tree regression models.There are 37 figures,34 tables,and 85 references.