The Research On The Affecting Factors Of Commercial Housing Price In Beijing

It has been 20 years since China abolished the welfare housing system in 1998 and the establishment of real estate marketization.In the past 20 years,the real estate market has developed rapidly.At present,the real estate market has become an important part of the national economy,and its market development will have a huge impact on the national economy.The price of commercial housing has also risen with the development of the real estate industry,and its growth rate is far higher than the national income level,which has seriously affected people's lives.Although the government has issued a series of policies to regulate housing prices,the effect of regulation is not satisfactory.At the same time,the real estate market has a lot of inventory.In the case of a relatively slow economic growth,housing prices continue to maintain high and rapid growth,which will further accumulate contradictions and risks in the real estate market.In order to solve this contradiction,it is particularly important to explore the factors affecting housing prices and formulate reasonable policies to control the excessive rise of housing prices.This paper chooses Beijing commercial housing market as the entry point to study the influencing factors of real estate prices in China.This paper chooses GDP,local financial expenditure,the per capita disposable income of urban residents,urban population,urbanization rate,money supply M2,inflation rate,interest rate,newly constructed area of commercial housing,completed area of commercial housing,sales area of commercial housing,investment amount of commercial housing development,land price and construction cost to study the relationship between real estate price and influencing factors.Referring to the previous research literature and research results,this paper uses qualitative and quantitative research methods to explore the influencing factors of commercial housing prices in Beijing.This paper chooses 16 years sample data from 2002 to 2017,and uses grey correlation analysis method and linear regression method to analyze.The results show that:(1)Beijing's commercial housing price has a high degree of correlation with macroeconomic level,followed by cost factors,and the weakest degree of correlation with the development of the real estate market itself.(2)When other conditions remain unchanged,the price of commercial housing in Beijing is positively correlated with GDP,local financial expenditure,the per capita disposable income of urban residents,money supply M2,land price and security cost,while negatively correlated with interest rate,newly constructed area of commercial housing and completed area of commercial housing.(3)Beijing commercial housing price is formed under the joint influence of different subjects such as macro-economy,policy regulation,urban development,real estate enterprises,banks,consumer and so on.When the government formulates macro-control policies on the real estate market,formulating strict credit policies and tightening monetary policies can effectively control the rise of housing prices.Because most consumers buy real estate through mortgage loans from commercial banks,when raising the interest rate of mortgage loans,consumers' purchase of real estate costs increases.As a result,consumers will reduce or postpone plans to buy real estate,which will help control housing prices.The increase of money supply will not only increase the inflation rate but also form the expectation of rising house prices,which will increase the pressure of rising house prices.At the same time,in view of the cities where house prices are rising too fast,strict purchase restriction policies should be implemented to crack down on property speculation.