Research On Forecast Of The Commercial Housing Price In Songbei District Of Harbin

Real estate has a very important role in our nation’s national economy, and as an important part of real estate, commodity residential house not only has a close relationship with our country’s economy development, but also has a close relationship with life of people, so the price of commodity residential house is always focused on by all kinds of people from whole society. As a new district that was built up lately and under the guiding ideology of "going to the north" and "prosperity in both sides of Songhua river, Songbei district has been taking construction on a large scale. Rapid development has made the commodity residential house market in Songbei district prosperous, but during the same time, the price appeared turmoil. Hence, it is necessary to do a research on the price of commodity residential house in Songbei district so that we can lay down proper measures and guarantee the healthy development of commodity residential house market in Songbei district.This article takes commodity residential house price in Songbei district as the research object. At first, makes the related research methods and logical framework according to the background of commodity residential market in Songbei district. From the points of meanings, characteristics, constitution and formation mechanism, this paper summarizes three kinds of influence factors of commodity residential house’s price which are influence factors that has effects on supply or demand or both supply and demand. Through the analysis on regional overview and the market situation of commodity residential house, we get the specific situation of those influence factors. And by means of analyzing the change trend of the price of commodity residential house, comparing the price level with somewhere else, and analyzing the typical indicators, we master the overall situation of the price of commodity residential house in Songbei district. Moreover, we use the multiple linear regression model as a frame to predict the price in the future. Through correlation analysis and the method of stepwise regression, this paper takes grey prediction GM(1,1) model to predict the values of independent variables so we can take two prediction model together and calculate the future price. Meanwhile, model output statistic method is introduced to decrease prediction errors. Through quantitative researches, we get the next five quarters’ main price trend of commodity residential houses in Songbei district. At last, this article give advices to real estate development enterprises, consumers and government departments under the foundation of predictive outcomes and realities of Songbei district, in order to maintain the price stabilization and market health.This paper builds up the combination prediction model of the price of commodity residential house in Songbei district and gives some advices for the development of the market. What is more, the train of thought and methods of this paper gives a reference for the price of commodity residential house in other places.