Research On Dynamic Risk And Reliability Of International Logistics Transportation For Hazardous Chemicals

2015,the occurrence of Tianjin hazardous chemicals big bang,brought heavily personnel,environmental and property losses,the safety of hazardous chemicals caused a national concern.With China's "The Belt and Road" proposed,the international trade and international logistics is developing rapidly,the export demand and traffic volume of hazardous chemicals also continues to increase year by year.But in the transport process,the safety of transportation is worthy of highly attention by the relevant departments,because when an accident happens,the negative impact is enormous.This paper mainly takes the risk of road transport and marine transportation which on international logistics transport stage of hazardous chemicals as the main research object.On the basis of analyzing the qualitative and quantitative research which on the risk of transport of hazardous chemicals at home and abroad,and a lot of research and analysis are carried out,considering the changes over time that the risk of international logistics transport have dynamic nature,therefore,this article uses the method of reliability and dynamic risk assessment combined to study the risk of hazardous chemicals transportation.The risk assessment model is established by constructing dynamic fault tree of hazardous chemicals road transportation and marine transportation,and the risk is identified and evaluated,and then the countermeasures are obtained.In order to study the risk of hazardous chemicals road transport and marine transportation,this paper mainly carried out the following work:(1)This paper analyzes the transport characteristics,process of international logistics and the dynamic risks of hazardous chemicals international logistics transportation.Considering the complex characteristics of the hazardous chemicalstransport system and the dynamic characteristics of transport risks,in this paper,the reliability probability risk assessment method of the reliability combined with the dynamic risk analysis is used,and formed the dynamic risk research framework of international logistics transportation.(2)Through investigation and analysis,the Accident-causing theory is used to find the four main factors which influence the risk of hazardous chemicals road transport,including driver,vehicle,environment and cargo,then constructed the dynamic fault tree model and the dynamic fault tree is transformed into Bayesian network.The node probability of Bayesian network is solved by the elimination algorithm of Bayesian network reasoning.(3)The five main factors which influence the risk of marine transportation of hazardous chemicals are identified by the Accident-causing theory,the five aspects are crew,ship,environment,management and cargo,then constructed the dynamic fault tree model,the dynamic fault tree is transformed into Bayesian network,the Bayesian network is solved,and the node probability is obtained.(4)For the abamectin which produced by daqing jefene bio-chemical co.,LTD.exported to Pakistan of the whole process of international logistics transport as specific empirical which as an example to research hazardous chemicals international logistics transportation risk.The corresponding countermeasures were carried out,and the specific countermeasures were put forward in the five aspects,which are personnel,equipment,environment,management and goods.