Research On Profit Risk Management From The Perspective Of Social Capital In Urban Rail Transit PPP Project

With the process of urbanization,the transportation problems are becoming more and more serious in China.In this context,urban rail transit has been greatly developed.But because the city rail transit construction project operation requires a large capital investment,it is difficult to meet the growing demand for rail transportation simply relying on the government fiscal expenditure.Therefore,the PPP(Public-Private Partnership)model is introduced into the urban rail transportation field to broaden the channels for obtaining funds.However,due to some characters of urban rail transit PPP project such as large number of participants,huge investment,long payback period of investment and the risks social capital faces,they all lead to the shortage of kinetic energy of the social capital to participate in city rail transit project investment.In order to mobilize the enthusiasm of the social capital,it is necessary to ensure that it can obtain long-term stable,reasonable investment returns,and to achieve reasonable risk sharing as well.It can be concluded as reducing the risk of social capital profi.Therefore,the paper puts forward the research on profit risk management of urban rail transit PPP project based on the perspective of social capital,mainly including the identification,evaluation and control of profi risk.First of all,preliminary identifying the income risk of social capital in urban rail transit PPP project is through the literature research and questionnaire survey.The risk factors included in four risk subsystems of social capital return risk system,that are named the risk subsystem of investment overruns in project construction,the risk subsystem of investment overruns in project operation,the risk subsystem of income shortfall in project operation,and risk subsystem of government subsidies shortfall,can be comprehensively identified based on the causal feedback model of the return risk.Then,the system dynamics model of social capital gains risk evaluation is established,and the model is applied to the rail transit line nine phase 1st PPP project of Chongqing as an example.The mathematical logic between the risk factors and variables can be found and the mathematical model can be developed by quantifying the social capital income risk system of the rail transit line nine phase 1st PPP project.Then the risk size the social capital side faces at different stages in this project can be worked out and the applicability of the risk assessment model can be verified by simulation based on the mathematical model.Finally,the control principle and control flow of the social capital to the return risk,the risk control measures of the different evaluation levels,and also the guarantee measures for the social capital to implement risk control are to be put forward.The income risks of social capital participation in urban rail transit PPP project is deeply analyzed in this paper,through the research on three aspects which are the identification,evaluation and control of income risk.It can provide decision-making basis for social capital participation in urban rail transit PPP project,and lay the foundation for the follow-up income risk coping and better risk sharing.This is of great significance for ensuring that the reasonable investment returns can be obtained by the participation of social capital parties in the investment of urban rail transit PPP project,the initiative of social capital can be enhanced,and the overall goal of the project can be promoted.In addition,it can also provide reference for the implementation of market-oriented financing reform,and the way to solve the problems of other quasi operational urban infrastructure under the current PPP mode.