The Research On The Impact Of Urban Economy From Rail Transit Based On System Dynamics

With the accelerating process of urbanization, the existing level of urban transport in China cannot meet the actual needs of urban development. High speeds, large volume, less pollution, more efficiency are advantages of urban rail transit, which can ease traffic congestion, save energy and reduce emission effectively. Furthermore, its enormous externalities play an important role in urban economic society. In China, the strategic position and construction level of urban rail transit have been improved in the past several years, and have a bright way to go in its future development. In order to exert urban rail transit’s active effects, it makes sense in both theory and practice to analyze the mechanism of urban rail transit’s activities and evaluate its impaction comprehensively.This paper takes the Beijing rail transit for example, using the system dynamics analyses the impact on the urban economy by collecting data samples. Put the urban rail transit and urban economy into a total system, which includes the transport subsystem, subsystems, and structure of GDP and employment subsystems. Described the ways and means that the urban economy impact in urban rail transit with causal loop diagram by the system dynamics special software Vensim, testing and forecasting the historical results of economic indicators with the stock and flow diagram and system simulation by the20-year interval. Studies have shown that the Beijing rail transit operations brought a large development to the economy of Beijing. During the operation of rail transit, the improvements of accessibility and the aggregation effect speed up the development of the real estate industry, accommodation industry and tourism. The promoting effect of rail traffic on the tertiary industry is especially significant. Rail transit influence on urban employment is not clear in short term, but it will greatly contribute to the increase of employment in the long term.