Analysis On The Interactive Relationship Between Technological Progresses And The Import And Export Trade

This thesis is study on the interactive relationship between technological progresses andthe import and export trade, and we have analyzed the interactive relationship of China basedthe data from1985to2011. Firstly, we have briefly introduced the present situation of foreigntrade in China; we also have chosen twelve variables to build the technological progress index,with the method of Principal Component Analysis. Then we have conducted the theoreticalanalysis and empirical analysis. In the theoretical analysis, this thesis has presented the path ofthe interaction, and then comes with the theoretical results; in the empirical analysis, this thesishas built a VAR model based on the variables which are the technological progress index, andthe scale and structure of the import and export trade. Based on this model, this thesis hasconducted the Cointegration test and the Granger causality test, and then comes with theempirical results. We have drawn conclusions based on the theoretical and empirical results,which is that, concerned the reality of China, the technological progresses have interaction withthe structure of imports, and it only have single affection with the scale of imports, but it haveno relationship with the exports. Further explanation is that technological progresses of Chinahave interaction with other countries’ manufactured sectors which have exports to China, andhave no relationship with our countries’ manufactured sectors. Lastly thesis has given policyrecommendations according to this phenomenon.