| Land is the carrier of all human life activities and provides important resources for human survival and development.However,with the advancement of industrialization and urbanization in China,the depth and breadth of land use by mankind has been continuously expanded,which has brought increasing pressure on the land and caused a series of problems.Through the research on the comprehensive carrying capacity of land,the scale and intensity of activities such as production,life,and economic development that are compatible with the comprehensive land carrying capacity of the region are explored,which is conducive to the realization of regional sustainable development.Mian County is located in Hanzhong City,Shanxi Province,and it is a county that promotes the development of the western region and a new round of key development in the Qinba Mountains.Therefore,through the evaluation and research on the comprehensive carrying capacity of the land in Mian County,it is helpful to explore the comprehensive carrying capacity of the land in Mian County.The matched growth model of economic society and resource protection is conducive to the sustainable development of Mian County.This paper selects a multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method and constructs an evaluation index system for comprehensive land-carrying capacity of Mian County to evaluate the comprehensive carrying capacity of land in Mian County in 2007-2016.The contingency factor diagnosis model was used to discriminate the limiting factors that affected the comprehensive carrying capacity of the land in Mian County during the study period.The coupled and coordinated evaluation model was used to evaluate the coupled and coordinated operation of the comprehensive land carrying capacity system in Mian County.At the same time,the county's comprehensive land carrying capacity in 2016 was analyzed in Hanzhong City.Using the grey system forecasting model,according to the development trend of each indicator,calculate the predicted value of land comprehensive carrying capacity in Mian County in 2020.At the same time,use the relevant planning results of Mian County and the average level of relevant indicators of Hanzhong City to determine the the ideal value of comprehensive carrying capacity of land in Mian County in 2020.,through the comparison of the ideal value and the trend forecast value,shows that the comprehensive land carrying capacity of Mian County in 2020 can be upgraded based on the trend forecast value.The conclusions of the study are as follows: 1.The comprehensive land carrying capacity of Mian County in 2007-2016 has generally risen.In 2008 and 2013,there has been a slight decrease.After 2013,it has steadily increased.2.The main limiting factors for the comprehensive land carrying capacity of Mian County in 2007-2012 are concentrated on indicators such as economic development and social security.The main limiting factors for 2013-2016 are those that focus on natural resources.3.The coupling coordination degree of the integrated land-carrying capacity system in Mian County from 2007 to 2016 is at a low level,and it is located at the level of mild dissonance decline.The overall degree of synergy among the various subsystems is relatively low.4.The data required for the evaluation of the comprehensive land capacity of 11 counties(districts)of Hanzhong City in 2016 will be substituted into the evaluation model,and Mian County is ranked eighth in the comprehensive land carrying capacity of Hanzhong City.5.Using the grey system forecasting model,based on the development trend of each indicator,the comprehensive land bearing capacity index of Mian County in 2020 was estimated to be 0.6203.Based on the ideal value of each indicator in 2020,the ideal value of the comprehensive carrying capacity index of Mian County in 2020 was calculated.It is 0.7107.Therefore,the potential increase potential of the comprehensive land carrying capacity index of Mian County in 2020 is 0.0904. |
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