Study On Price Fluctuation And Conduction Of Pig Industry Chain In Anhui Province

The pig industry is an important livelihood industry in China's agriculture,and also a key industry in the development of livestock industry in Anhui province.The pig industry in Anhui province has a leading position in eastern China and even in the whole country.But the pig market prices fluctuate frequently and periodically,which is not conducive to the steady development of pig industry.This article was based on this background.Firstly it analyzed the current situation of the development of Anhui pig industry.Then it gave further study of pig industry chain price fluctuations and conduction rule.Lastly it put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions so as to promote the healthy development of pig industry in Anhui province.The main research results of this paper are as follows:(1)The transformation characteristics of price variables in each link of Anhui province's pig industry chain.Obviously,the sample number of gentle fluctuation states,the continuous probability and the duration are greater than the violent fluctuation;(2)The market price of each link of the pig industry is easier to change from violent fluctuation to smooth fluctuation.And the breaking of market price stability is more due to external shocks than internal factors.(3)The fluctuations in the price of pig industry chain in Anhui province impulse response function shows that the volatility of prices under the state impact is stronger than gentle fluctuation condition.But the impulse response function figure under the two states is roughly the same.The impact of each price variable decreases with time.The price of a link is affected mostly by its own price fluctuation,followed by the price of upstream or downstream products.The impact of feed price fluctuations on other prices is relatively small.Based on the above research results,this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the healthy development of the pig industry in Anhui province: To play the role of government macro-control and pay more attention to the market operation mechanism;Focus on pig breeding and develop moderate scale operation;Set up the price warning mechanism,strengthen the whole industry chain management;Improve subsidies for pig breeding and improve pig insurance products.