| Quite a lot of farmers in apple eugenic area transform from grain production to apple production and meet government policy support,huge market opportunity and potential income increase since the rural reform.However,with the transformation of agricultural output supply and demand situation from long term shortage to overall balance,fresh apple market are more complex than ever in number of ways: on the one hand,price fluctuates sharply;on the other hand,market get into a“double difficulty”trap,which means at farm-gate,it quite difficult to find buyers for huge apple,but at final market,the price of fresh apple are so high that consumers are unable to afford them.Therefore,apple price volatility and its changing trend have become important issues for Apple industry,policy makers and academia.In the beginning,this paper summarizes the characteristics and rules of apple price fluctuation and investigate their determinants and mechanism.Based on this,we make empirical analysis on the inner determinants and outside shock to apple price fluctuation.The main contents of the paper as following:1.The theoretical configuration of the impact of apples price fluctuations.The purpose of this chapter is to construct a theoretical configuration of the internal and external factors of the apple industry system on the apple price fluctuations.The chapter analysis of the main factors affecting apple's price volatility based on the basic theory of apple price fluctuations and establish the theoretical configuration of the internal and external factors of Apple's industrial system on the apple price fluctuation.2.Measure the apple price fluctuation characteristics.The purpose of this chapter is to measure the apple price fluctuation characteristics,and provide explanations for reasonable fluctuations in apple prices.Firstly,we summarize the period and geography characteristics of apple price fluctuation analysis.Secondly,geography characteristics of apple price fluctuation reflected in apple price in coastal and southwestern areas are higher than other regions.Thirdly,the relationship between price fluctuations of different varieties of apples was studied.Specifically,HP filter method and seasonal index method were used to analyze the long-term trend and periodicity of apple producer price and apple market price fluctuation characteristics.The method of network crawler was used to collect the wholesale price of apple market in China.The mean,variance and discrete coefficient of the wholesale apple market price were calculated for each province,and the spatial characteristics of the apple price fluctuation were studied by means of thermodynamics.The correlation coefficients of different apple varieties were measured to investigate the correlation of different varieties apple price fluctuations,and the copula function was used to measure the non-linear correlation structure between apple and banana.3.Empirical research on influencing factors of apple consumer price fluctuation in China.This research content corresponded to the chapter 4.The main purpose of this chapter is to make an empirical study on the influencing factors of apple consumer price fluctuation in China,and to verify whether the consumer price has spatial spillover.Firstly,we use Partial Equilibrium Theory to deduct the empirical function that could be easily estimated.Secondly,it used the spatial panel econometric model to examine whether there was a spatial spillover effect in apple consumer price,and discusses the specific effects of various factors affecting apple consumer price.4.Empirical research on influencing factors of apple producer price fluctuation in China.This research content corresponded to the chapter 5.The main purpose of this chapter is to make an empirical study on the influencing factors of the apple producer price fluctuation in China,focusing on the specific impact of the apple production technological efficiency on the apple producer price in China.Specifically,the following two steps are analyzed: first,the three-stage DEA model is used to calculate and analyze the technological efficiency of apple production in the main producing provinces;second,the impact model of apple producer price is constructed,and the panel regression model is used to depict the specific impact of factors,and examine the specific impact of production technology efficiency fluctuations on producer price fluctuation.5.Research on vertical transmission path of price fluctuation in domestic apple market.This research content corresponds to the chapter 6.The main purpose of this chapter is to explore the law of apple price fluctuation and transmission path in industry.Specifically,DCC-MVGARCH and CCC-MVGARCH are used to depict the vertical transmission process of price fluctuation in apple market.6.Empirical research on the impact of currency issuance M2 increment and fresh apple futures price on apple price volatility.This research content corresponded to the chapter 7.The main purpose of this chapter is to empirically study the impact of currency issuance M2 increment and fresh apple futures price on apple price volatility.Specifically,the vector autoregressive model(VAR)was used to measure the cointegration relationship between currency issuance M2 increment,fresh apple futures price and apple price fluctuation.Through co-integration test,error correction model and causality test,and impulse response function was used to further study the formation mechanism of apple price fluctuation.The main conclusions and findings as following:1.The apple price fluctuation had obvious spatiotemporal characteristics.Most of the apple prices fluctuations of different varieties were positively correlated,and the tail correlation of apple and banana price fluctuations was asymmetric.The time characteristics of apple price fluctuation were as follows: the long-term trend of apple price fluctuation shows a slow downward trend,and the downward trend of apple producer price was more obvious than that of market price;the price fluctuation frequency of apple market was more frequent than that of producer price,but the fluctuation range was relatively small;the price of apple had obvious cyclical characteristics,and the apple producer price fluctuation cycle is more obvious than that of apple market.The main spatial characteristics of apple price fluctuation were: the apple production in most major apple producing provinces was relatively large and stable,so the absolute fluctuation of apple price is not large;the absolute fluctuation of apple price in non-major producing provinces is the largest.Relative price fluctuation of Red Fuji Apple wholesale market in Guizhou and Fujian is relatively small,which may be due to the small change of demand for apples by residents in this area;the relative fluctuation of apple price in Qinghai was the highest,the main reason is the fluctuation of Apple's input supply,including the fluctuation of supply in Apple's main producing areas and the fluctuation of Apple's logistics costs.2.The empirical research of the impact model of apple consumer price fluctuations indicates that:(1)there was a spatial spillover effect in apple consumer price fluctuations.(2)The market price expectation,apple producer price,residents' cash food consumption expenditure,substitutes price,logistics cost,currency issuance M2 increment and the average price of apple consumers in neighboring provinces will positively promote the price fluctuation of apple consumers.(3)As for the three effects of the spatial measurement model,the residents cash consumption expenditure,substitutes price,logistics cost,currency issuance M2 increment had a significant positive impact on the spillover effect of apple consumer price in the province,urbanization rate had a significant negative impact on the spillover effect of apple consumer price in the province;population density had a significant positive impact on the spillover effect of apple consumer price in the adjacent areas outside the province;the total effect of spatial panel regression spillover effect of substitutes price and population density was both positive and significant;the total effect of spatial panel regression spillover effect of urbanization rate was negative and significant.(3)Reducing the price expectation,substitutes price,the average price of apple consumers in adjacent provinces,the logistics costs and currency issuance M2 increment were conducive to the decline of apple consumer price fluctuation;raising the level of urbanization,reducing logistics costs and alternative prices was also conducive to the decline of apple consumer prices in the province;and reducing the local population density were conducive to reducing the neighborhood apple consumer prices in near provinces.3.The empirical research of the impact model of apple producer price fluctuations indicates that:(1)the change of apple production technology efficiency had significant restraint effect on price fluctuation of apple producers.(2)The overall level of apple production technological efficiency in China was low.Environmental factors and random factors had significant effects on technological efficiency of apple production in China.(3)The fluctuation of the apple producer price in the previous period,the fluctuation of the cost of fertilizer in the apple production process had positive and significant effects on the apple producer price fluctuation;while the overall technical efficiency of apple production,mechanical leasing and other expenses,and the increase in money supply have a negative impact on the price of apple producers.4.the fluctuation of apple price follows the transmission path of the agricultural price the apple producer price the apple consumer price,and the transmission of apple price fluctuation is asymmetric.5.The growth of M2 was an important factor affecting apple price fluctuation.The growth of M2 had a positive effect on apple price fluctuation.Fresh Apple futures price affected the spot price of apple in the short run,but not in the long run;Current empirical research indicates that the spot price of apple had no significant impact on the futures price.There was a co-integration relationship between the growth of M2 and spot apple price fluctuation,and there was a co-integration relationship between the fluctuation of fresh apple futures price and spot apple price.Impulse response function showed that,driven by growth of M2 and the inertia of its own price,apple prices in China would continue to operate at a high level in the next 3 to 10 months.When apple spot market price fluctuation was given a positive impact,the apple spot market price itself would had a large alternation of positive and negative fluctuations,the price fluctuations within a week are larger,after 10 days of maintenance,the price fluctuations in apple spot market gradually stop.When the price fluctuation of apple futures market was given a positive impact,the price of apple spot market would fluctuate slightly in a week.After the seventh days,the price fluctuation of apple futures market will maintain a small,lasting and stable positive effect on the price fluctuation of apple spot market.Based on the above research conclusions,it's very necessary to establish and improve the Apple price risk early warning system,reduce apple production costs and distribution costs,play well functions of Apple Industry Organizations and Industry Associations. |
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