The Reseach On Investment Decision-Making Of Pipe Gallerg PPP Project Based On Real Option

Pipeline system is an important part of the city,China is currently in the rapid development of urbanization stage,it is conducive to the protection of urban safety and enhance the city's comprehensive carrying capacity and development quality to promote the construction of urban underground Pipe Gallery.In the face of the huge gap in the construction of infrastructure funds,the PPP model is used to build the Pipe Gallery project,which can effectively deal with the financing problems of the Pipe gallery construction.However,the investment objective of private capital is to obtain the project income.Faced with the uncertainty of the project,private capital needs to be concerned about that how to make effective investment decision-making in order to achieve the optimal benefit.Aiming at the limitation of the traditional investment decision-making method,this paper has carried on the research on the investment decision of the Pipe Gallery PPP project based on the real option.According to the characteristics of investment decision of the Pipe Gallery PPP project,first of all,on the basis of previous studies,summarized the advantages of Pipe Gallery projects using the PPP model.This paper analyzes the advantages and limitations of real options method of traditional methods of assessment,and clarify the applicability of real option in the Pipe Gallery PPP project.Secondly,the investment decision model of the Pipe Gallery PPP project based on the real option is constructed,and the parameters of the model are studied deeply.And the method of single factor sensitivity analysis based on Greeks index and multivariate sensitivity analysis method based on Monte Carol simulation are presented.Finally,taking a Pipe Gallery PPP project as an example,the traditional NPV method and the real option method are used to calculate the project value,and the further sensitivity analysis calculates the sensitivity of the model parameters to the real option value,thus verifying the reliability of the model.The real option method takes into account the volatility caused by various uncertain factors on the investment decision of the Pipe Gallery PPP project,identifies the real option type contained in the project,and establishes the investment decision model of the Pipe Gallery PPP project based on the real option theory.And provide a certain reference for the investment decision of the Pipe Gallery PPP project in the uncertain environment,enrich and deepen the application and research of the real option in the infrastructure project.