Research On The Spatial Effect Of Regional Housing Price In The Yangtze River Delta Based On Spatial Panel Model

Since the implemention of the Reform and Opening-up policy,the regional cooperation of China's economic development has been deepening greatly,numerous economic communities come into being.The real estate industry,being as a pillar of the national economy,played an important role in the process of regional linkage.Existing research shows that there may be a spatial relationship between regional real estate market.Thus leads to the research subject of this article——whether there is an spatial effect in the performance of the housing price in Yangtze River Delta.Applying the data of house price in 25 cities from year 2000 to year 2013,this paper conducted an empirical study on the spatial spillover of housing price.First,analysis the spatial correlation by calculating the overall morans'I index and drawing the local morans scatter plot and LISA plot of the 25 cities in Yangtze River Delta.The results show that there is a remarkable spatial correlation in the house price overall and in local area.Next,build the spatial panel model.Take the market factors and social factors as independent variable,set up six spatial matrix which are respectively based on driving distance,high-speed rail distance,geographical adjacency,economic distance,economic connection degree and economic adjacency.The regression results show that:First,the spatial effect plays an important role in the housing price in Yangtze River Delta,and the population variable shows a significant direct effect on the house price,the industrial structure and income factor show a significant indirect effect,while the housing sales and greening rate show a significant influence both direct and indirect.Second,the spatial correlation coefficients in the economic matrix are higher than in the geographic matrix,which indicates the economic relationship plays a more important role in the spatial transmission of housing price than geographic association.Third,it's found that cities with close economic connect with central city/high proportion of third industry/strong innovation ability/high urbanization level show a stronger spatial correlation than others.Fourth,this article have introduced the time lag of housing price on the basis of spatial panel and build a dynamic spatial panel model.The result of the latter shows that there is a notable time effect in the housing price,and the introduction of time lag weakened the influence of spatial lag a lot.Last,analyzing the spatial effect combining with the revolution of urban agglomeration,this paper concludes that the spatial effect is mainly transmit through population interaction?industrial linkage and economic relation.Besides,the industrial layout,urbanization process,urban scale and agglomeration ability are important factors affecting the housing price.