| Residential is one of the basic means of subsistence for human survival and development, and also to measure an important indicator of a country’s economic development and its living standards. The development process of the real estate industry shows that urban commercial housing market is frequently affected by the policy and various socio-economic factors. So, the housing price of cities has always been a hot commodity and focus concern of the government departments and the academics. With market process promote of the real estate industry, urban housing prices have rendered the regional and spatial differentiation trends. Housing prices continue to enhance the space diffusion effect among cities, manifested in one city housing price change will tend to affect the price fluctuations around cities and even much farther. Based on this background, choosing a reasonable scope to study the conduction of city housing price changes, determining the impact and extent on the spatial factors by changing the housing price are the important study parts of housing prices research. Meanwhile, the situation of economic development is different in different areas, the demand and supply of the real estate market are also have regional differences, which causes differences in housing price factors. Therefore, the study of the impact on regional housing price mechanism has necessity.For the practical needs to solve the housing price disparities among cities, this paper will take the Yangtze River Delta region as the study area, the commercial housing price of cities as the study object. Referring the housing price "ripple effect" theory and a detailed analysis of domestic and foreign research results, the conduction pattern and impact extent of regional housing price changes can be qualified by using cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function and other methods. On this basis, determine the spatial relationship of housing prices among the Yangtze River Delta city group for the purpose of establishing the spatial econometrical model. Finally, by analyzing the key factors affecting housing price changes, the author tries to propose regional regulations in the real estate market.This paper includes the following four parts:1、Analysis on housing price transmission path on 12 cities in the Yangtze River Delta. From a regional perspective, the author attempts to determine whether there has price convergence in housing market by using ADF unit test and Granger causality test so that to reveal the conduction and the source of the conduction of the housing prices.2、Analysis on housing price transmission effects on major cities in the Yangtze River Delta. The author uses cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function and other methods to try to clear the conduction direction of housing prices between major cities in Yangtze River Delta. Meanwhile, determine the impact of housing price changes in a city to other cities, as well as the degree of interaction.3、Analysis on spatial autocorrelation of housing prices of 16 core cities in the Yangtze River Delta. By using the global spatial autocorrelation index (Moran’s I statistic) and local spatial autocorrelation index (LISA index) to test Yangtze housing price spatial autocorrelation, for the purpose of clear whether there has space spillover effects in the regional real estate market.4、 Study of factors causing housing price changes in the Yangtze River Delta based on Spatial Econometrical model. By defining the factors causing changes in housing prices, this paper could be established the spatial econometrical model in order to understand the relationship between various factors and housing price changes, especially the crucial factors and the influence degree. Finally, the effect mechanism of the housing price changes will be realized.Through empirical research, summarized research results are as follows:1、 There is a housing price change conduction between the Yangtze River Delta cities. Shanghai is the core of city caused by housing price fluctuations in the Yangtze River Delta region, housing prices in this region’s cities are comply with the law by the regional center to the surrounding area diffusion, verified the "ripple effect."2、 Space is one of significant geographical factors of conduction of housing price fluctuations. The closer to Shanghai of the core city in the Yangtze River Delta, the more easily lead to secondary conduction. In comparison, Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and several other cities, which geography is not directly adjacent, have relatively independent conduction path; Because of different administrative regions, the housing prices rising of Hangzhou and Ningbo have certain limitations by Nanjing.3、 There have a long-term positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity of the housing prices in the core area of the Yangtze River Delta. With the advance of urbanization and the development of the real estate market, the contact of Yangtze housing market tends to close; however, due to urban society, different levels of economic development, there is a height difference in housing prices, housing prices have caused local differences in the spatial distribution.4、 There is a significant spatial diffusion effect on the changing housing prices of Yangtze area. Spatial relations have become significant factors house price change; In addition, after considering the spatial factors, variable degree of influence on the price of housing has been reduced reflecting the real estate supply and demand and the economic fundamentals.5、Regional economic, urban residents’ income levels, real estate supply, market expectations and spatial relations are significantly affect housing prices, considering the housing prices mutual conduction, thus forming the comprehensive impact of housing price mechanism in Yangtze River Delta. In addition, the overall housing market in the Yangtze area is still in short supply, which the demand tends to invest in hedge demand rather than user demand, and the needs of the population is not significant factors leading house price change; At the same time, housing prices is at a high level in Yangtze River Delta period, which should be prepared to take market regulation measures. |
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