| In order to better develop international trade with other countries,China is accelerating the pace of developing the FTA strategy,planning to form a FTA construction layout which has three levels,including periphery,the Belt and Road Initiative and the whole world.So far,China-Australia FTA has become a typical representative of the North-South Dialog.It has the most comprehensive contents and the highest level of trade and investment liberalization in 16 FTAs which have been sighed.This study selects sensitive dairy products in the industry of agricultural products trade as the research object,combining with theory and practice,analyzing the effects of China-Australia FTA on import and export trade of our country dairy products.It aims to explore how to better use China-Australia FTA to promote the development of Chinese dairy industry trade.The research results also provide the basis of decision for negotiation,signing and implementation of Chinese FTA in the future.The present thesis consists of six sections.Section One aims to present the background and elaborate the significance of the chosen research questions,identifies related key concepts and closes with intended innovation points and possible limitations.Section Two reviews previous research literature,published in China and beyond.The thesis takes advantage of gravity model to explore the trade effect of FTA with previous research methods.Section Three explains the main terms of China-Australia FTA,comparing with other FTAs.It emphasizes the particularity of special safeguard measures for agricultural products,and points out that the study of dairy products is meaningful.And then it analyzes the facts of dairy trade between China and Australia.From the perspective of trade characteristics,Australia has always been one of the top five origin countries of dairy products from 2001 to 2016.Import dependency index of China-Australia dairy rises between 2001 and 2016,which is always higher than the export dependency index,indicating that Chinese dairy trade is more dependent on Australia.From 2001 to 2016,the export performance of Chinese dairy products is always far lower than the world level,Australian export performance index of dairy products is always far higher than the world level,trade relation of dairy products between the two countries is not a competition but a complementary relationship.From the perspective of utilization rate of FTA,the utilization ratio reached 65.84%after one year,which is higher than other FTAs.Chinese exports to Australia are dominated by the products with comparative advantages,such as textiles.In the dairy industry,the utilization rate is relatively low,the effect of promotional efforts is not yet clear.The implementation of China-Australia FTA has a significant positive effect on trade in eastern and even some central regions.Section Four selects the data of China and 134 trading partner with dairy products from 2001 to 2016,it uses PSM model and the gravity model to study the effects of FTA on trade,the results have showed that trade balance,per capita GDP between the two countries,economic scale,the population of trading partners,and if the two countries sign FTA will affect imports and exports of dairy products,and signing FTA brings significant positive effect to the China-Australia bilateral trade.Through calculating the trade potential,it has found that the trade potential is enlarged with signing China-Australia FTA,the Chinese dairy enterprises can't make a good use of FTA.Section Five summarizes the findings and concludes with relavant policy suggestings. |
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