| China and Australia are both agricultural country,and the dairy industry occupies an important position in Australia.Because it has the natural geographical advantage,the advanced technology of dairy farming and dairy products processing,the strict dairy products quality and safety management system,Australia has a strong international competitiveness in the dairy products production,processing and trade.However,China’s dairy farming and dairy processing technology are relatively backward,low yield,high cost of raw milk production.Compared with Australia,our country is not competitive.At the same time,the gradual increase of people’s income and the change of consumer awareness,the domestic dairy consumption demand continues to expand,while the consumption requirements of dairy products quality are constantly improve,the domestic dairy production has been unable to meet domestic demand.China’s import demand is expand.China’s dairy imports have also rose from 2009 tonnes in 597000 to 2015 tonnes in 1.6107 million.Along with the implementation of the "two-child policy" in our country and the aging of the population development,it will promote the increase of total imports of dairy products.China and Australia signed the China-Australia free trade agreement on June 17,2015 in the Australian capital Canberra after nearly 10 years of negotiations.This agreement rules that the dairy import tariffs from the Australian will be start to perform the 5 to 12 times lower taxes to zero tariff policy according to the different dairy products category on December 20,2015,and it also set up a number of trigger level for sensitive products.With the implementation of the China-Australia free trade agreement,the reduction of tariff will have a certain impact on China’s imports of dairy products from Australia to some extent.At the same time,we also should consider that Australia’s dairy products have strong competitiveness in China.Therefore,the implement of the China-Australia free trade agreement will impact to our dominant dairy enterprise of no advantage in some degree,and it will have an impact on the development of China’s dairy industry.In this paper,first of all,on the basis of overall import status of China’s dairy products,we further analyze the current situation of imports from Australia,founding that since 2009,China’s imports of dairy products from Australia has maintained steady growth,and the trade deficit between China and Australia is very large,and imports are far greater than imports.Meanwhile according to statistics,in 2015 the number of dairy products imported from Australia was 113 thousand tons,while in 2016 reached a total of 134 thousand tons.This year is the first year after the implement of the China-Australia free trade,and the effect of the FTA has not been fully released.At the same time,we found that the structure of China’s dairy imports from Australia has some changes,presenting the characteristics of milk powder,milk based,dairy consumption structure diversification,cheese and fresh milk growing faster.Secondly,on the basic of analysis of the China-Australia free trade agreement rules of Chinese tax reduction model,we use the method of comparative analyze to the influence of the FTA on the import,and analyze the trade effects.Among,I use partial equilibrium model to calculate the effect in the different degree tax reduction for the trade creation effect.Finally,based on the above analysis,draw the conclusion,arguing that in the long run the China-Australia free trade agreement will increase the number of China’s dairy imports from Australia,and the growth potential is very big,it is also conducive to make up the gap of domestic dairy consumption,and have a larger trade effect.But,it will also impact the domestic dairy industry.Based on this,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations from three aspects of producers,consumers and the state in order to better develop dairy products in China. |
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