| With the continuous development of economic globalization,the national economy is more and more closely linked together.Taking an active part in regional economic cooperation has been becoming the important strategic choice for each country and region.In this context,China has accelerated the process of negotiating the free trade agreement with Australia and signed the People's Republic of China government and the Australian government free trade agreement on June 17,2015.This is the first time for China to reach a free trade agreement with the larger economy of major developed economies.After the founding of China-Australia Free Trade Area,the tariffs on dairy products from Australia will gradually reduce to zero in 5 to 12 years in China.Dairy products trade plays an important role in the international trade of our country.It is an important factor related to the healthy development of China's dairy industry.Australia enjoys high reputation in the international market of dairy products by virtue of its superior geographical position,the strict quality control system and the low cost of dairy farming.Australia is China's fourth largest source of imports of dairy products.It can be predicted that,with tariffs on dairy products imported from Australia in China gradually reduced to zero,will have a tremendous impact on China's dairy products import trade,which will have a certain impact on the dairy industry in our country.Therefore,the study about how the establishment of China-Australia Free Trade Area can have an impact on China's dairy trade is meaningful.And on the basis this paper provide reference and suggestions to China's dairy enterprises and the government about how to promote the healthy development of the dairy industry,keep and improve the competitiveness of China's dairy industry,reduce the negative impact on China's dairy industry when China-Australia Free Trade Area is established,make full use of the favorable terms of China-Australia Free Trade Agreement.The content of this paper is divided into the following five chapters:The first chapter is introduction,which mainly introduce the background and significance of this study,literature review and theoretical basis,related concepts,the research content,methods,the innovation and deficiency.The second chapter is the provisions on dairy products trade of China-Australia FTA.Firstly,it introduces the foundation and the background of China-Australia FTA.Secondly,it introduces the provisions on dairy products trade of China-Australia FTA.The provisions contain dairy tariff reduction of China,dairy products special safeguard measures and deliberative system.The third chapter is the analysis of the status quo of dairy products trade between China and Australia.The chapter mainly analyzes the status quo of dairy products trade between China and Australia in 1996-2015 from two aspects of the size and structure of the trade.The fourth chapter is the analysis of the competitiveness and trade intensity of dairy products between China and Australia.First of all,the chapter analyzes the competitiveness of dairy products between China and Australia from the aspects of qualitative analysis and index analysis.Secondly,the chapter analyzes the complementary degree of dairy products from the aspects of the overall and product segmentation between China and Australia with the trade intensity index.The fifth chapter is the effect of China-Australia FTA on China's dairy products trade.This part mainly uses the SMART model to simulate the changes in trade creation effect and trade diversion effect of dairy products by the different degree of tariff reduction to all kinds of dairy products from Australia.And analyzes which dairy products are more affected.The sixth chapter is the main conclusions and policy recommendations.Firstly,the chapter introduces the main conclusions of this paper.Secondly,the chapter puts forward some suggestions for dairy enterprises and government of China.By collecting a large amount of data,combining the method of qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis,it can be conclude that:firstly,The provisions on dairy products contain dairy tariff reduction of China,dairy products special safeguard measures and deliberative system in the China-Australia FTA.Secondly,Australia is an important source of imports of dairy products in China.The amount of dairy products imported from Australia has continued to increase in recent years in China.The amount of all kinds of dairy products imported from Australia has continued to increase.Specifically,the proportion of liquid milk imported from Australia in recent years showed an upward trend in recent years,in which the milk increased rapidly;the proportion of dry dairy products imported from Australia decreased.And powder,cheese imports is larger.Thirdly,the simulation results of SMART model shows that,the establishment of China-Australia Free Trade Area will have little impact on the dairy products trade in the short term.But it will have larger impact with tariffs gradually reduced to zero in the long term.And the trade creation effect will be greater than the trade diversion effect.The establishment of China-Australia Free Trade Area will have larger impact on milk,yogurt and cheese.Compared with the previous literature,the main innovations of this paper are as follows:Firstly,the amount of various types of dairy products imported from Australian in China and weighted unit price are analyzed by collecting a large amount of data.They can better reflect the tendency of change.Secondly,this paper makes use of indicators to analyze the competitiveness and the complementary degree of all kinds of dairy products.They can better reflect the trend of change.Finally,combined with China-Australia FTA tariff reduction schedule,this paper utilizes the SMART partial equilibrium model to analyze the impact on dairy products.It can better reflect trade creation effect and trade diversion effect of various types of dairy products.This paper also has some deficiencies.It mainly focuses on dairy products trade and less research on the dairy investment and technical cooperation. |
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