Research On Credibility Assessment Methods Of Complex Simulation Experiment Results

The simulation experiment results,which are the output of the simulation system running according to a simulation experiment scheme,are the fundamental of system analysis and evaluation.Complex simulation system has the characteristics of largescale,multi-level and multi-interaction.Complex simulation experiments have the characteristics of many factors,multi-level and large-scale.Whether the complex simulation results are credible or not has become a key problem faced by simulation users and researchers.In this paper,the credibility evaluation method of complex simulation experiment results is studied:Firstly,the credibility assessment index system of complex simulation experiment results is studied.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of complex simulation experiment and the process of simulation application,the influencing factors of the credibility of simulation experiment results are summarized,the assessment index system of the credibility for complex simulation experiment results is established,and then the evaluation process of the credibility of complex simulation experiment results is given.Secondly,the calculation method for credibility index of scenario layer experiment is studied.Confidence interval method and Bootstrap estimation method are used to calculate simulation output accuracy.Deviation criterion is used to measure the spacefilling of experimental points.Correlation coefficient between factors is used to measure orthogonality.Hypothesis test is used to analyze distribution consistency.Proportion coefficient is used to measure the typicality of experimental points selection.Thirdly,the comprehensive evaluation methods for the credibility of complex simulation experiment results are studied,including the normalization method of index values,index weighting method and synthesis method.The normalization method of index based on transformation function is given.A combined weighting method based on hierarchical clustering is proposed and verified by an example.The characteristics and application scope of addition synthesis and multiplication synthesis in index synthesis method are given.Finally,an assistant tool for credibility assessment of complex simulation experiment results is designed and implemented.The tool includes user management,evaluation object management,simulation experiment setting,evaluation expert management,index system construction,index calculation,index synthesis and evaluation report generation.The validity of the evaluation method is verified by an example of credibility evaluation for the simulation results of an air defense system.