Measurement And Simulation Of Pension Replacement Rate For Urban Workers In China

In 2018,China's pension has achieved 14 consecutive increases,which will lead to more pension income for retirees.However,with the increase of the absolute amount of pension,we have noticed that the replacement rate of pension is declining year by year.This reflects the weakening of the basic endowment insurance for urban workers in China.This has aroused the doubts of scholars and ordinary people about the rationality of the old-age insurance system,and is not conducive to the harmonious development of our society.At the same time,with the aggravation of population aging,the increasing pressure of pension fund expenditure and the slowing down of economic development,there are huge obstacles to the improvement of pension replacement rate in China.To solve this problem,we should follow the principles of social security moderation,social welfare maximization,social risk minimization and fair efficiency.The determination of pension substitution rate depends on the level of social and economic development and the actual situation of individuals,but the existing literature seldom considers the calculation and evaluation of pension substitution rate from macro and micro perspectives.Therefore,how to determine a reasonable pension replacement rate is an urgent problem to be solved.By using the methods of literature research,comparative analysis and empirical analysis,this paper studies the rationality of pension replacement rate for urban workers in China.In this paper,the actuarial model of pension substitution rate,OLG model of pension substitution rate and a large number of data are used to solve this problem.This paper mainly includes the following five aspects:(1)This paper not only combs the basic theory and research methods or models of pension substitution rate,but also defines the related concepts of pension insurance and the principles to be considered in the design of pension substitution rate.(2)From a macro point of view,this paper calculates the target replacement rate,the average replacement rate and the total replacement rate of urban workers' pension in China.This paper analyses the historical position and balanced development level of pension substitution rate of urban workers in China from the perspective of historical development,comparison between different groups and different regions,and compares it with other countries' pension substitution rate,and then evaluates the rationality of the current pension substitution rate in China.(3)Based on the current pension policy for urban workers in China,this paper not only establishes an actuarial model of the target replacement rate(including the replacement rate of individual account pension and the replacement rate of social pooling account pension),but also calculates the replacement rate of pension and makes sensitivity analysis and agree ability analysis of the main influencing factors.(4)Considering the great difference in the calculated value of the pension replacement rate,we calculate the reasonable range of the pension replacement rate according to the current basic living line,Engel's Coefficient,the consumption level of urban residents and the consumption level of higher-income groups,which provides a reference for the follow-up simulation results.(5)Considering the social and economic development and the current pension policy,this paper builds a model of the acceptable replacement rate of urban workers' Pension Based on OLG model,and simulates and analyses the model.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the current pension policy and the level of social and economic development in China,this paper calculates the replacement rates of individual account pension,social pooling account pension and pension,which are 19.21%,31.80%and 51.01%respectively.(2)The pension replacement rate of urban workers in China should be set within the range of[41.88%,60.81%].(3)China's pension substitution rate exists unbalanced development among different groups and regions;compared with other countries or regions,China's pension system has a higher substitution rate of the first pillar,but the coverage of other pillars is smaller.