Research On Industry-oriented Technology Of Audit Based Simulation Model Library

As the basic old-age insurance system is a public policy , its fund balance related to the beneficia of people's livelihood and social stability. The business process of basic old-age insurance system in our country is even more complex, as it has so many parameters which associated with policy. As each research focus on distinct area and their research methods are both different, the business models of the basic old-age insurance system builted by each scholar show some differences. In the data source, most studies reply to the statistical data,which is more imprecise than the rear data from the basic old-age insurance system. The models built on this data,Although there predict results can reflect the trend of the funds in the future,it lose of precision. And the real database system of the basic old-age insurance , with the passage of time, its amount of data is also increasingly large, which requires the researchers and auditors have a higher level of information technology.Based on this background, firstly, we analyse the basic old-age insurance system, make qualitative and quantitative study of the parameters which associated with policy, then build the business process models of the basic old-age insurance system by using system dynamics theory. Based on the business model, we extraction and transformation the set of audit simulation model of basic old-age insurance system, and gives an algorithm for semi automatically generating the audit simulation models's audit approcah. Using this audit approach, we extract data from the basic old-age insurance database, build prediction models of each parameters, and make a prediction of the trend of the data in the future. Finally, we analyse two important policy parameters "retirement age" and "rate of the system covering", as compare different value of them , we suggest the goverment should improve the "rate of the system covering" and not extend the "retirement age".