Housing Affordability And Residence Decision Of China's Floating Population

According to “Social integration assessment report of urban floating population in China 1”,there are 241 million floating people in 2018.According to the national plan for new urbanization,the urbanization rate of permanent residents will reach 60% by the end of the 13 th Five Year Plan period.The identity transfer of rural floating population to urban residents is not only related to the issues solving concerning agriculture,rural area and farmers,but also related to the healthy development of urbanization,industrialization and even the whole modernization.Housing is not only an important part of the survival and development of the floating population,but also is an essential aspect to ensure them to live and work in peace in cities.However,nowadays high-price housing is a serious issue in many cities.The average price of commercial housing rose 2.3 times from 1998 to 2015.Housing prices in the first-tier cities Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,Guangzhou have increased dramatically,and rising at an average annual rate of more than 10 percent.With the rapid development of the new urbanization,the insufficient housing affordability of the floating population is becoming more and more serious day by day.By using the data of the 2016 and 2017 CMDS,the 2016 and 2017 Urban Statistics Yearbook,we construct a Binary-Probit model and an Order-Probit model to solves the following problems: Firstly,based on the residual income approach and the monthly payment of mortgage loans,this paper measures the housing affordability of floating population.Secondly,according to the calculated housing affordability of the floating population,the paper analyzes the effect of housing affordability on the long-term residence willingness of the floating population;Thirdly,we analyzes the effect of housing affordability on the long-term and short-term residence decision of the floating population;Fourthly,The cross-sections of related variables are added to further examine the urban and individual differences.Lastly,according to the analysis results,the heterogeneity of the floating population is fully considered,and in order to speed up the civilization of the floating population,this paper puts forward targeted policy recommendations.The results are as follows: Firstly,Of 110219 samples,the proportion of floating population with long-term residence willingness decreased from 68.64% to 46.78%,and the proportion of floating population with insufficient housing affordability increased from 51.48% to 57.65% from the year 2016 to 2017.The housing affordability of agricultural immigrants is lower than that of non-agricultural immigrants.As income levels rise,the housing affordability of floating population is gradually enhanced;With the increase of urban level,the corresponding housing prices are higher,and the housing affordability is weakened.The housing affordability of the floating population in the first-tier cities is the weakest,while that in the third-tier cities and below is the strongest.Secondly,The housing affordability of floating population has a significant positive impact on their long-term residence willingness.The stronger the housing affordability is,the stronger their long-term residence willingness is.The estimated coefficients of variables marriage,higher education,employment status,length of mobility,household registration and housing ownership of the individual control variables are all significantly positive;while the coefficients of variables gender,age and mobility range of the floating population are all negatively significant.In terms of occupation,compared with the production personnel,the floating population with other occupations tend to make longer-term residence decisions.The estimated coefficients of variables city category,medical service and industrial structure of the cities' control variables are all significantly positive.The higher the level,the better the medical service conditions and the higher the industrial structure,the longer term residence intention of the floating population.Thirdly,the estimated coefficient of the housing affordability of the floating population to the long or short-term residence decision-making is significantly positive.When the standardized housing affordability increases by one unit,the probability of the floating population's residence decision-making increasing by one or more levels will increase by 1.05 times.Fourthly,There are significant differences within urban public services,occupation,housing ownership,household registration,intergeneration and education differences in the effect of the housing affordability of the floating population on their long or short-term residence decision-making.For the floating population who flow into cities with low public service level,production occupations,urban housing,non-agricultural household registration,older age or higher education,the improvement of housing affordability has a weaker impact on their long-term residence decision-making.