Research On Risk Management Of Stampede Accident In Large-scale Mass Activities

Due to the development of China's economy and the huge economic and social benefits brought by large-scale activities,the number of large-scale mass activities has been increasing in recent years.There are a large number of people gathered at the scene of large-scale mass activities,and the situation of the scene is complex.It is easy to cause stampede accidents,heavy casualties and property losses.Therefore,it is of great significance to analyze and quantify the risk factors of large-scale stampede accidents and improve the risk management ability.First of all,based on the existing research and regulations,the large-scale mass activities is redefined in this paper,the main part of the definition is explained in this paper such as the number of participants.And CiteSpace is used to summarize the research fields related to the stampede accident of large-scale mass activities.Secondly,109 cases of stampede accidents of large-scale mass activities at home and abroad from 1990 to 2018 are counted in this paper.The occurrence time,main cause,casualties,site type and activity nature of the stampede accident are also counted,and the case is analyzed from macro and micro aspects.It is found that the stampede accidents of large-scale mass activities are often found in underdeveloped countries,stadiums,squares and other places,in which religious activities are the most casualties.There are some common causes of stampede accidents in large-scale mass activities,including crowd panic,narrow and crowded bottleneck,population saturation,lack of reasonable guidance and management.Combined with the existing research results of risk factors,the risk factors of stampede accidents in large-scale mass activities are proposed in this paper,including crowd characteristics,management level,site conditions,environment and other factors.Each aspect of the specific content is discussed in this paper,and the mechanism of large-scale mass activities stampede accident is analyzed also in this paper.Then,the crowd density,the number of entrances and exits,and the width of exits are analyzed quantitatively.According to the relationship between crowd density and crowd speed,the crowd density when the crowd speed is zero is selected as the critical point to prevent stampede accidents of large-scale mass activities.Based on the existing research results,the population density is determined as 3 p/m~2 to 3.93 p/m~2.According to the existing regulations on the number of exits,the calculation method for the number of exits of large-scale mass activities such as artistic performances and sports activities is proposed in this paper,According to the calculation formula of evacuation time of Japanese scholar Togawa,the calculation method of total width of entrance and exit is put forward in this paper.Finally,the quantitative results of population density,number of entrances and exits,and width of entrances and exits are simulated and verified by using Pathfinder evacuation software.The C Park of H City,H Province is selected as the simulation scenario,and the model is run after setting the simulation parameters,which verifies the feasibility of the quantitative calculation method of the three risk factors in reducing the scale and duration of personnel congestion and preventing the stampede accident of large-scale mass activities.According to the simulation results,the population density is optimized to 1.53 p/m~2~1.78 p/m~2,it provides a reference for the prevention of stampede accidents in large-scale mass activities in practice.According to the simulation results,the population density is optimized to 1.53 p/m~2~1.78 p/m~2,which provides reference for the prevention of large-scale stampede accidents in mass activities.