The Domestic Politics And Its Impacts On The Border War Between Ethiopia And Eritrea (1998-2000)

Eritrea is one of the youngest states in Africa as it won its independence in 1994 by armed struggles.Although ranked as one of the least developed economies in the world,it has possessed a remarkable quantities of natural resources and also geopolitically situated in the Horn of Africa,along with an access to the Red Sea linking to the Indian Ocean.In addition,due to the historical reasons,Eritrea and its largest neighboring country Ethiopia had a “special” relationship deserved to be deeply explored.This study aims to explain the reasons why Ethiopia which had aided Eritrea for its struggle for independence surprisingly annexed it in 1962? In light of this,the relations between the two countries since 1994 were undermined by this memory along with other disputes.The border conflicts broke out in 1998.Due to the effective mediation from the international society and the African Union,Eritrea and Ethiopia finally signed the peace agreement(truce)in 2000.Yet it remains the question whether the agreement could bring peace and development to the two countries and accordingly serve the core interests of the two peoples.This is thus an inspiring study on the foreign policy and diplomacy of the two countries involved.It is true that since the modern era,Eritrea was successively annexed by foreign forces such as the Ottoman Empire and the colonial powers of Europe.Yet since the end of the WWII,the colonial system dominated by the European powers began to fall into pieces.By the United Nations resolutions passed in December 1950,Eritrea was granted a status of full autonomy under the jurisdiction of Ethiopia,but it did enjoy its constitution,parliament and a sovereign government.In 1952 Eritrea became a highly autonomous local region which existed until 1962 when was coercively annexed by Ethiopia as one of its provinces.In the wake of that,the people of Eritrea under the leadership of “Liberation Front” launched a 30-year long armed struggle for national independence from the rules of Ethiopia.In 1991,Eritrea joined with the people's revolutionary front to overthrow the ruling regime headed by Mengistu Haile Mariam.Accordingly the two sides came to negotiate a political deal,allowing Eritrea to hold a general referendum to decide its independence or to remain within the Ethiopian country.Yet the result is that Eritrea declared full independence which was followed by its participation into the United Nations,the African Union and many other international and regional multilateral organizations.Accordingly,the government of Eritrea has kept the principles of peace,non-alliance and good-neighbors in its foreign policy and argued for the peaceful co-existence with all other countries.It has since prioritized the good relations with the Western powers with a view to winning economic aid and political support.In addition,Eritrea has actively participated into the African and regional affairs,arguing for the role played by regional organizations such as the African Union.At first,Eritrea and Ethiopia had good relations in a special way,e.g.the two sides signed a treaty of friendship and cooperation in 1993 and Eritrea used the Ethiopian “Birr” as the currency for business and daily life until 1997 when it decided to use the U.S.dollars for international and bilateral business.This decision in effect was the primary reason leading to the economic disputes and trade war between the two countries.By May 1998,the mutual distrust and bilateral hostilities eventually escalated to the open war over the borders of the two sides.At last,the international community made all efforts to mediate the conflicts and two years later they finally agreed to conclude a peace deal,also called as the termination of all hostilities on the two sides.However,the refusal of the Ethiopia to recognize the peace deal led to the talks to enter the impasse.In early 2003,Ethiopia decided to close its embassy in Asmara,followed by the recall of Eritrea's diplomatic legation from Addis Ababa.Since then,the peace has never been restored on the borders areas until 2018.There are numerous arguments regarding the reasons and the nature of the border war between the two countries.Yet this study aims to explore the deeper domestic considerations on the two sides in light of the latest research published and archives opened and the relevant interviews with the governmental officials.No doubt,the historical reasons and the economic pursuits are usually the core reasons for nations going to the confrontations.Yet,in international relations,what the ruling elites perceived or misperceived each other on both sides might be more crucial due to their lack of mutual understanding or simply fell into miscalculations.Firstly,the case under discussion displays that the ruling elite of Eritrea did not pay sufficient attention to the people of Ethiopia,both the ruling elite and the ruled mass,who had given the supports to the cause of Eritrean independence and now were furious at the 1993 referendum held in Eritrea.Many people hold this referendum unfair,less transparent and even manipulated by the local and ruling officials.However,the ruling elite in Addis Ababa became less prudent and even arrogant to the political demands from the Eritrean side.Secondly,in geopolitical term,the separation of Eritrea from Ethiopia meant the latter lost a key access to the Red Sea linking to the Indian Ocean.As a result,Ethiopia became a regional power without a harbor for its sea power which will lead to its losing its power,profits and prestige in Africa and the world as well.Since then,the popular resentment drove the ruling elite to be more assertive and even aggressive to Eritrea.Since then,their previous friendship and mutual support began to turn into mutual distrust,the situation fell into chaos.In addition,when the leaders in Asmara decided to use their own money Nakfa to replace the long-time used Birr as the official currency circulated in Eritrea,the business and social elite began to exert their influence on the leaders in Addis Ababa.Under the pressures from domestic politics,the two countries tried to modify their policies to meet the new challenges but failed eventually.Like many similar cases in history,this time was surely turned into one of high sensitive and fragile one in the current world.In light of the analysis under discussion,the border war of 1998-2000 primarily originated from the Ethiopia where the ruling elite and the ruled mass were angry over their loss of a vital access to the sea and their long-time influence over this small neighbor.It is also true that Eritrea is small state with much poorer economics,how could it challenge the powerful and influential Ethiopia? For sure,there are some arguments that the real cause of the border conflict in the Horn of Africa came from the outside conspiracy which aimed to destabilize the region.Yet it is less proved.The war lasted for two years and formally ended in 2000 with a formal peace agreement concluded.Yet the disputes between the two sides and the reality of “No Peace and No War” continued to 2018 when the new Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali began to manage the issue.This fact once again confirms the real reason for the border war came from the Ethiopian side rather than the Eritrean side.In addition,the end of the border war were not for the specific territorial gains or economic benefits,instead of their failure to manage the “people's opinion” on the foreign policy.This is the real argument of this thesis.Based on this reasoning,the thesis adopted a quantitative analysis supported by the theory of John Stoessinger's notion of perception and misperception in policy-making.Accordingly,the thesis is divided into four chapters with an introduction and a conclusion.The topic on “The Domestic Politics and its Impacts on the Border War between Ethiopia and Eritrea(1998-2000)is really a novel effort to write with a combination of history and theory.As usual,the introduction include the general arguments involving what,why and how,along with the methodology and literature review.Chapter one traces the historical transition of the two countries' relations;followed the analysis if the causes and reasons of the border war.Chapter three focuses on the main subject of the war from 1998-2000 and the talks on the peaceful settlement.Chapter four continues the arguments of the theories of realism and the notion presented by Stoessinger.The final part reviews the leadership and the role of the leading elite,it argues that their perception and misperception sometimes play the vital role in policy-making.This is the core reason why the leaders need to properly manage the impact of the “people's will and influence in international politics.