Long-term Care System For Older People In Shanghai

As the population ages,family endowment function and the acceleration of social transformation,the problem of care for the elderly has become another important challenge in China’s aging society.In the case of limited care services,how to construct a perfect long-term care service system to improve the quality of life of the elderly and alleviate the great pressure on the social and economic development is particularly urgent.The problem is also more acute in China’s most ageing cities,Shanghai.Firstly,the study used data from the survey on living conditions of elderly people in China’s urban and rural areas in 2015,which was carried out in 2015,to analysis on the current situation of the care service of the elderly in Shanghai,and also perform descriptive statistical analysis,frequency analysis and contingency table analysis by using SPSS software.What’s more,through interviews and research the author tend to further analyze the existing problems and causes of long-term care services.Second,predict the demand of long-term care services for the elderly.Using STATA software to set up ARIMA model to forecast the elderly population in Shanghai during 2017-2021.On this basis,the Markov model is used to calculate the probability of the loss of the elderly,in order to get the population size of the elderly.The forecast results show that the population size of the elderly population in Shanghai will continue to grow in the next five years,and the supply and demand of long-term care services for the elderly are quite serious.Finally,based on the above for long-term care of the elderly demand forecasting as well as the domestic and foreign relevant experience for reference,the author establishes a long-term care service system for the elderly in Shanghai,which divided into internal system and external system.Internal system including the service object,needs assessment,mode selection,service standard and service content,external system including legal policy support,capital support,talent team construction,supervision and management,information platform construction,and other support,etc.The main research result of this paper is to build a long-term care service system for seniors in Shanghai,which is help to protect the elderly and prevent the risk of the elderly.In this paper,based on the analysis of the present situation of the elderly in long-term care services,and predict the needs of the elderly in long-term care,put forward the sharp contradiction between supply and demand of the elderly long-term care services,and then build system of countermeasures.The research has certain reference significance to perfect social security theory and coping with aging population and aging population.