| After 2000,large-scale social activities flourish,but what accompanied is stampede accidents occur frequently.According to the statistics by author,totally about 107 stampede accidents occurred in the world between 2000-2015,which caused 15932 casualties.Stampede accidents not only brought severe casualties and economic losses,but also had amplification effect and easily turned into mass disturbance,which triggered social instabilities.Therefore,how to design scientific and effective system to prevent stampede accidents or decrease the losses,has become an important subject that need to be solved urgently.At present,the researches of scholars at home and abroad mainly focus on risk evaluation,and evacuation,but seldom involve in mechanism and prevention of stampede accident.The supreme goal of modern emergency management is putting forward checkpoint and carry out risk management.Therefore,this paper begun with statistics and analysis of stampede accidents and caught hold of its spatial-temporal characteristics and inducing factors.Then,it depicted the occurrence,development and evolution mechanism of stampede accident.Finally,prevention and control system was constructed accordingly.Detailed research results were listed as follows:(1)The occurrence of stampede accidents all over the world after 2000 had certain spatial-temporal characteristics,which could be divided into two stages.The first stage fell between 2000-2007,with larger casualties and occurrence frequency.The annual fluctuations was big with two crest and though emerging.The second stages was after 2008,casualties and occurrence frequency and annual fluctuation were smaller than first stage.Stampede accidents in large-scale activities mainly occurred in July,February and March,but casualties were the largest in September,January and August.Stampede accidents mainly occurred at religious venue,stadium and festival site in Asian countries.The chief inducing factors was human factors,the others were environment factors,venue&facilities factors and management factors.(2)During stampede accident,individual was in anxiety,panic and blindness.Individual behaviors decision abided by five steps with id occupying a leading position.Under the effect of crowd mentality,negative mentality and more crime less punishment mentality,group behavior was featured by conformity,non-adaptiveness and self-organization.(3)According to life cycle theory,this paper constructed mechanism analysis theory system of stampede accidents and depicted its occurrence,development and evolution mechanism based on catastrophe theory,dissipative structure theory and mechanics theories.(4)Based on the mechanism and inducing factor analysis of stampede accidents in large-scale activities,by applying theory of emergency management and safety system engineering,this paper constructed the frame structure of prevention&control system of stampede accidents in large-scale activities.Then,the paper defined prevention & control stages and contents.Finally,macroscopic strategies and microscopic counter measures were proposed. |
