| China's aging has the characteristics of rapid growth,large scale,old age before being rich,unprepared and old,and so on,which has greatly changed the population structure of China.The data of the sixth national census showed that the aged population over 60 years old in Beijing has reached 19.7% of the total population of the household,which also shows that the trend of aging in Beijing is becoming increasingly prominent.With the increasingly severe aging problem,the health status of the elderly population in Beijing is not optimistic.At the same time,due to the trend of family miniaturization,the ability of family to provide care service is declining,and the serious aging problem has brought a great burden to the individuals,families and even the society of the residents of Beijing.Therefore,in recent years,Beijing is trying to establish long-term care insurance,however,its long-term care service is still in the beginning stage,many aspects of the long-term care service system construction,supply and demand strategies are not perfect.Therefore,the current situation of long-term care service in Beijing is investigated and investigated in the field to measure the influence factors of the long-term care needs of the elderly in the region,and to provide a true and effective reference for the establishment of long-term care service system in Beijing and the whole country as a necessary basis for the construction of the system.Based on the Maslow demand level theory and the welfare multiple theory,this paper builds a hypothesis model based on the relevant literature at home and abroad,and takes Beijing as a survey sample area.Based on the Stata 14 statistical analysis software,logistic regression,Markov chain model and multi state life table model are used for the elderly in Beijing.Human needs for long-term care services are predicted.This study is divided into four parts,and gradually analyzes the long-term care needs of the elderly in Beijing,and puts forward the corresponding coping system.First of all,the study first analyzes the status of long-term nursing service in Beijing,and puts forward the relevant issues that need to be focused and solved in this study,and explains the objectives,significance,specific content and related methods of the study.Secondly,the research and collection of relevant literature,rules and regulations at home and abroad,such as the core concepts of the study,such as the concept of long-term care,and combing the relevant theories and the latest research results,including the theoretical basis,typical model,nursing system,research technology and so on.Thirdly,based on the census and microcosmic survey data,the age calculation and other actuarial methods are used to construct the population actuarial prediction model of Beijing city and the multi state Markov chain method,and then combine the population data to analyze the changing trend of the demand scale of the elderly nursing service in Beijing in the future,and further combine with Beijing city.According to the corresponding pricing of nursing service institutions,the demand cost of elderly care services in Beijing was calculated.The forecast results show that the total time for care service for the elderly in Beijing will reach about 1 million 570 thousand years in the future,and the related cost of care services will reach 69 million 520 thousand yuan in 2020 and 430 million yuan in 2050.In terms of the needs of specific services,the cost of daily life care services grew faster and the cost was the highest.In 2050,it reached 130 million 690 thousand yuan,followed by the assistance of changing clothing services,and reached 18 million 627 thousand and 500 yuan in 2050;and the cost of health care and medication services increased in the health care service.They were both faster and more expensive,reaching 74 million 557 thousand and 800 yuan and 39 million 84 thousand and 300 yuan respectively in 2050.In the spirit of consolation service,the cost of hospice care was still mainly reflected,and the cost increased rapidly.During the period from 2014 to 2050,the total cost increased from 8 million 622 thousand and 900 yuan to 121 million 888 thousand and 500 yuan.The total cost of all services rose from 30 million 899 thousand and 600 yuan to 426 million 953 thousand and 400 yuan.Finally,based on the calculation results of the long-term nursing service demand in Beijing,we put forward the coping system for the elderly nursing service demand.It mainly includes three aspects: service financing system,service supply system and service supervision system.From the point of view of the main body of financing,the way of financing,the main body of supply and the way of supply,this paper discusses the necessary measures to establish a long-term nursing service demand response system. |
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