| Object: On the basis of predicting the population and composition of Kazakh home-based disabled elderly in Xinjiang pastoral areas in the next ten years by using Markov model and actuarial model,this paper further predicts the time cost of informal care for Kazakh home-based disabled elderly in Xinjiang pastoral areas in the next ten years,and probes into the changing trend and influencing factors of the time cost of home-based informal care.With a view to providing a scientific basis for policy makers to provide financial compensation for informal care of home-based disabled elderly in Xinjiang pastoral areas in the future.Methods: ? To understand the current situation of time cost prediction of informal care for home-based disabled elderly through literature research;? The multi-state transition process and state transition probability matrix of Kazak elderly in pastoral area were constructed by Markov model;? The actuarial model predicts disabled elderly population of Kazakh home-based in Xinjiang pastoral areas in the next ten years;? The opportunity cost method and proxy good method were used to calculate the time cost of informal care for Kazakh home-based disabled elderly in Xinjiang pastoral areas in the next ten years;? The semi-structured interview method was used to analyze the factors influencing the prediction of time cost of informal care for home-based disabled elderly.Results:1.The total population of Kazakh home-based disabled elderly in Xinjiang pastoral areas will increase from 30711 to 84880 in the next ten years.? Among the elderly with different degrees of disability,the number of elderly with mild,moderate and severe disability increased from 21428 to 57270,5566 to 15831,and 3717 to 11779,respectively,with an average annual growth rate of 4115/year,1161/year,and 854/year,respectively.? Among the disabled elderly at different ages,the disabled aged 60-69,70-79,80 and above increased from 22306 to 67473,5860 to 12198,and 2545 to 5208,the average annual growth rate was 5198/year,664 /year and 267/year.2.The total time cost of informal care for Kazakh home-based disabled elderly in Xinjiang pastoral areas will increase year by year in the next ten years.? The opportunity cost method calculates that the time cost of informal care for the Kazakh homebased disabled elderly in Xinjiang pastoral areas in the next 10 years:(1)The age groups of 60-69,70-79 and 80 and above increase from 260 million yuan to 785 million yuan,83 million yuan to 174 million yuan,43 million yuan to 89 million yuan,respectively;(2)The cost of care time with different degrees of disability has gradually increased,with mild,moderate and severe disability increasing from 219 million yuan to 584 million yuan,86 million yuan to 244 million yuan,and 84 million yuan to 266 million yuan;(3)According to the cost calculation of different home-based care contents,the care time cost of instrumental activities of daily living(IADL)is the largest,followed by the care time cost of activities of daily living(ADL),and finally the time cost of guardianship and psychosocial care.The instrumental activities of daily living care,activities of daily living care,guardianship and psychosocial care increased from 288 million yuan to 797 million yuan,85 million yuan to 234 million yuan,12 million yuan to 32 million yuan,and 8 million yuan to 23 million yuan,respectively.? The proxy good method calculates that the time cost of informal care for the Kazakh home-based disabled elderly in Xinjiang pastoral areas in the next 10 years:(1)The age groups of 60-69,70-79 and 80 and above increase from 223 million yuan to 674 million yuan,72 million yuan to 149 million yuan,37 million yuan to 76 million yuan;(2)The cost of care time for different degrees of disability has gradually increased,with mild,moderate and severe disability increasing from 188 million yuan to 502 million yuan,74 million yuan to 209 million yuan,and 72 million yuan to 229 million yuan;(3)According to the cost calculation of different home-based care contents,the care time cost of instrumental activities of daily living(IADL)is the highest,followed by the care time cost of activities of daily living(ADL),and finally the time cost of guardianship and psychosocial care.The instrumental activities of daily living care,activities of daily living care,guardianship and psychosocial care increased from 248 million yuan to 685 million yuan,73 million yuan to 201 million yuan,10 million yuan to 28 million yuan,and 7 million yuan to 20 million yuan,respectively.3.The influencing factors for the prediction of the time cost of informal care for the Kazakh home-based disabled elderly in the Xinjiang pastoral areas include: the age of the elderly,the degree of disability,health status of the caregiver,human resources,material resources,home-based care time and regional wages Level.Conclusions:1.The time cost of informal care for Kazakh home-based disabled elderly in Xinjiang pastoral areas is increasing year by year in the next ten years,among which the care time cost of the disabled elderly in the 60-69 age group,instrumental activities of daily living(IADL)and mild disability elderly is the highest,the growth is the fastest,and the care time cost for severe disability elderly is the second largest.2.Different ages,disability degrees,and regional wages of the elderly are the main factors that affect the time cost of informal care for Kazakh home-based disabled elderly in Xinjiang pastoral areas. |
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