Emergency Blood Supply Features And Its Demand Forecasting Model Under Unconventional Emergencies

In recent years a series of unconventional emergencies has caused huge losses to people’s lives and property, and how to effectively deal with unconventional emergencies has become a focus of global concern and hot spots.After unconventional emergencies happened,medical care has became an important part in saving lives and protecting health.Blood plays an extremely important role as an essential emergency supplies in the emergency support stage,but in the actual rescue,blood in the incident can not be understood, so resulting in the lack of emergency blood for the protection of the stage and dynamic considerations. Besides,it may result in a one-time to the incident of excessive blood supply, causing the blood a lot of obsolescence and the consequent blood shortage "crisis.Therefore, in the face of unconventional emergencies involving blood, how to analysize the blood protection features according to the nature of incident and forecast the blood demand quickly based on limited information has important theoretical and practical significance in guiding blood mobilization, organization, acquisition and transfers,carrying out effective medical aid and medical care.In this context, this study was supported by Major Research Plan of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.90924012), which is named "Blood Support System Design and Its Collaborative Optimization Models for Responding to Unconventional Emergency". The thesis made a preliminary study revolving in the main features of emergency blood supply and demand forecast. Firstly, it summarized summary of the emergency blood supply and demand forecasting literature and theory, pointed out that the status of these researches and then presented a framework and ideas of this paper.Secondly,based on blood supply chain,including the demand for emergency blood collection, supply, transport and clinical use,it summarized and analyzed in detail the emergency blood supply under unconventional emergencies and summed up the blood emergency features.Thirdly,it established a total demand of emergency blood forecast model based on Logistic curve characteristics in order to meeting the timeliness requiremeng of the rescue early.Then taken into account the fewer emergency blood sample data and on has the characteristics of the trend and volatility, on the one hand,it inrodued envelope idea and Markov probability forecast to the model and established a a gray envelope-Markov emergency blood update forecast model.On the other hand, considered the advantages and disadvantages of the gray forecasting models and artificial neural network model combined with the characteristics of emergency blood demand, it also established a gray-artificial neural network emergency blood combination forecasting model and tested the feasibility and effectiveness of the model via instance data and simulation data.Finally,it also pointed out the scope of the emergency blood forecast model proposed in this paper.