Research On Demand Forecasting Model Of Medical Consumables

With the continuous development and progress of modern science and technology,new technology has been applied to the field of medicine.With the development of material science,new materials are constantly emerging and people's demand for medical services is increasing,both of which increase the variety and quantity of medical consumables.The increase of medical consumables usage will bring new challenges to the hospital medical consumables management of medical consumables,so the scientific and reasonable management have become the most difficulty of hospital medical consumables management departments should focus on it.Although the hospital medical consumables management departments with different plans and strategies for management,but the management plan and strategy managers need to understand the needs of the hospital outpatient departments and medical supplies to the amount of detail.Therefore,accurate measurement of pre demand of medical consumables to make medical consumables management plan and strategy is very important.On the basis of the research background and significance,this paper summarizes the research status of domestic and foreign medical consumables demand forecast.Secondly,this paper describes the basic theory of medical consumables and demand forecast and introduces the prediction method.Then,in the actual situation of the provincial hospital medical materials analysis,three kinds of single forecasting model is the actual use of the two exponential smoothing prediction model,grey prediction model and linear regression prediction model is introduced in detail.Finally,on the basis of the theory of combination forecasting,we use shapley value method,variation coefficient method,simple weighting method and variance reciprocal method to determine the weight of single prediction model in combination forecasting.Based on the determination of the weights,a combination model of three single prediction models is established.On the basis of these studies,the department of general surgery of Anhui Provincial Hospital of disposable sterile syringe(Henan lotus 5ML)the use of forecast and analyze the prediction results,the prediction results show that using the inverse variance method to determine the prediction precision weight of combination forecasting model is the highest.The prediction accuracy of four models,the method for determining the weights of which were high,empirical studies show that the variance four methods to determine the weight of a single forecasting model of the reciprocal method used in medical consumables is scientific.At the end of this paper,the main conclusions of the empirical research,and pointed out that the use of methods and the lack of further research prospects.Effective prediction of hospital medical supplies,not only can the better safeguard hospital departments of medical consumables supply,reduce inventory costs and avoid the waste of resources,but also helps to liberate the medical staff from the tedious and unnecessary work,reduce staff complex labor;contribute to scientific and rational use of consumables.At the same time,the effective prediction of the demand of medical consumables can not only realize the accurate management of the consumable materials,but also provide the scientific basis for the purchase and inventory management of medical consumables.