| Due to the general decline in the fertility rate of the population in the context of the family planning policy,and the improvement of the quality of life expectancy and the advancement of science and technology in China,the proportion of the elderly population over 65 years old in China has increased from 20 years ago.It has doubled,and the total number of elderly people is large,the growth rate is fast,and the degree of aging is characterized by “not getting rich first”.Different levels of aging have emerged in various provinces and cities in China.The population aging level in Hubei Province is higher than the national average.The aging population is increasing year by year and showing an aging trend.More importantly,the prevalence of the elderly is rising,the pressure on the current social insurance system is growing,and the demand for commercial health insurance is increasing.In this context,this paper studies the impact of population aging on the demand for commercial health insurance in Hubei Province,reflects the actual health insurance demand situation in Hubei Province,and provides important data analysis and reference recommendations for the promotion of commercial health insurance.The overall structure of this paper is divided into five parts.The first part is the introduction part and theoretical analysis,mainly introducing the background and the introduction of meaning,and the citation of foreign literature.A comprehensive introduction to the issues related to population aging and related theories on commercial health risks.The second part is the analysis of the status quo,introduces the development status of population aging and commercial health insurance in Hubei Province,and analyzes the factors affecting the demand of commercial health insurance from the aspects of population,social economy,policy system and insurance awareness.The third part is the mechanism analysis,which discusses the mechanism of aging affecting commercial health insurance demand from the aspects of medical security level,social insurance security level and national risk awareness.The fourth part is an empirical analysis.By establishing a VAR vector autoregressive model and using relevant data of Hubei Province for nearly 21 years,the influencing factors of commercial health insurance demand in the context of aging are studied.The dependency ratio of the elderly,the average family population represents the degree of aging,and the per capita GDP.And the interest rate represents the level of economic development.The above five variables establish a vector autoregressive model to explain the interrelationship between variables and the impact of population aging on per capita health insurance in Hubei Province.The fifth part is based on the conclusions obtained in the previous section,providing some guiding suggestions for the development of commercial health insurance.Theoretical research shows that under the background of aging,the pressure on the medical security system and the social insurance system is increasing,leading to an increase in people's demand for purchasing commercial health insurance.The empirical study shows that the above five variables have a stable cointegration relationship.The demand for commercial health insurance in Hubei Province is negatively correlated with the average family population to a certain extent,and positively correlated with the elderly dependency ratio.Moreover,health insurance demand has a certain degree of lag due to the impact of per capita GDP and interest rates,but as the per capita GDP period increases,people will also increase the actual demand for health insurance.Therefore,in the context of an aging population,people's demand for health insurance is increasing,which brings great market space for the development of health insurance.Faced with the impact of aging,commercial health insurance can only solve the medical difficulties of the elderly behind aging by only seizing the opportunity and combining and complementing itself with social insurance. |
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