Study On The Relationship Between The Prevalence Of Fatty Liver And Time In Healthy People Based On Age-Period-Cohort Model

ObjectiveThe Age-Period-Cohort(APC)model was established by collecting the results of physical examination and various physiological and biochemical indicators.The effects of age,period and birth cohort on the prevalence of fatty liver in healthy people in Chongqing were analyzed.and to explore the development trend of metabolic diseases and risk factors related to the prevalence of fatty liver in healthy people.To grasp the changing trend of fatty liver and related risk factors in Chongqing,and to provide evidence for reasonable early detection,early prevention and early treatment.MethodsA retrospective analysis was made on the data of physical examiners aged 20 to 85 years old in the Health Examination Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from 2010 to 2017.Data of physiological and biochemical indicators were collected and multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors associated with fatty liver.Age-Period-Cohort(APC)model was established to estimate the age,period and birth cohort effect of fatty liver disease in healthy people in Chongqing.ResultsFrom 2010 to 2017,the prevalence of fatty liver was 25.03%in healthy people in Chongqing,34.54%in males and 13.35%in females.The prevalence of fatty liver in males was significantly higher than that in females(χ~2=38501.4608,P<0.0001).After age group,the prevalence of fatty liver was the highest in the age group under 50-60 years old(32.46%).The peak of the prevalence of fatty liver was in the age group under 60-70years old in 2010-2012.The prevalence of fatty liver was 38.1%,34.70%and 32.43%respectively.The peak of the prevalence of fatty liver was advanced to 50-60 years old group in 2013-2017.The prevalence of fatty liver was 25.70%,32.02%,32.10%,34.01%and 34.58%respectively.There was a trend of younger age group,the difference was statistically significant,the p value was less than 0.05.Compared with men,the prevalence of fatty liver in women under 70years old is lower than that in men,and the difference is statistically significant(p<0.05).The prevalence of fatty liver in females aged 70 to 85years old was higher than that in males(29.9%vs 26.91%,23.21%vs21.43%),but there was only significant difference in the age group of 70 to80 years old(χ~2=33.2778,P<0.0001).The prevalence of fatty liver is the highest in males aged 40-50(40.74%)and in females aged 70-80(29.90%).It is suggested that males are younger than females.The results of age-period-cohort(APC)model showed that the prevalence of fatty liver increased with age from 2010 to 2017 in Chongqing health check-up population.It reached its peak around 50 years old,but from 70 years old,the prevalence of fatty liver showed a downward trend.From the trend of the period,the prevalence of fatty liver decreased first and then gradually increased,and the prevalence of fatty liver peaked at a younger age.From the trend of birth cohort,the prevalence of fatty liver in the health examination population in chongqing decreased with the increase of birth year,and the prevalence of fatty liver was highest in the population born in1950s to 1960s.From 2010 to 2017,the proportion of overweight(32.99%)and diabetes mellitus(4.75%)were the highest and the lowest among the health check-up population in Chongqing.The prevalence rates of metabolic disorders were overweight(32.99%),high total cholesterol(32.24%),high triglyceride(29.70%),hypertension(19.35%),high glutamic-pyruvic aminotransferase(12.48%),obesity(8.30%)and diabetes(4.75%).Univariate analysis showed that age,sex,BMI,hypertension,ALT,TC,TG and FPG were the influencing factors of fatty liver.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that older age,male,overweight,obesity,hypertension,high glutamic alanine aminotransferase,high total cholesterol,high triglyceride and diabetes were risk factors for fatty liver,and were positively correlated with fatty liver.Obesity[OR=283.595(95%CI:231.258-347.776)]was the most important factor.ConclusionIn this study,the prevalence of fatty liver in healthy people was25.03%.The prevalence of fatty liver increased with age,decreased with time,and decreased with the increase of birth cohort.In addition,There are many metabolic diseases in health examination in Chongqing,such as overweight,obesity,high glutamic alanine aminotransferase,high triglyceride and diabetes mellitus are increasing year by year.It is necessary to further strengthen the prevention and control of basic diseases.Older age,male,overweight,obesity,hypertension,high glutamic alanine aminotransferase,high total cholesterol,high triglyceride and diabetes are risk factors for fatty liver.However,obesity is the main risk factor.We should control the intake of high calorie food,pay attention to the rationality of diet,pay attention to nutritional balance,strengthen physical exercise and improve bad habits.