| Objective: Explore the trends of viral hepatitis in the past seven yearsin Chongqing and analysis its characteristics. Provide a scientific basis forthe development of prevention strategies and measures to further controlthe epidemic of hepatitis.Methods: Descriptive epidemiological research method was used toanalyze the viral hepatitis in Chongqing,2005-2011. The ARIMA modelwas established with the data between January2005and June2011, and thedata between July2011and December2011was used for model validation.Results: A total of244,040hepatitis cases were reported, of which126cases were dead in seven years in Chongqing. The IR of hepatitis wasdecreasing year by year and no significant seasonal distribution. The IR ofmale (157.22/100,000) was higher than female (88.66/100,000). Of which,the proportion of HBV (208,553cases,85.46%) was the highest and HEV(1,723cases,0.71%) was the lowest and no HDV was reported. Thenumber of35-39age group was the largest in male (21,547cases,13.66%)while20-24age group in male (11,033cases,12.78%). The highest IR in Chongqing was the northeastern wing (159.12/100,000) while the lowestwas southeast wing (91.18/100,000) by geographical distribution. Farmer(106,180cases,43.51%) was the most common occupation followed bystudents (29,015cases,11.89%) and housewife and unemployed (23,029cases,9.44%). ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)12model was the optimal predictionmodel and the absolute mean value of the relative error was7.57%.A total of14,452HAV cases were reported, of which3cases were deadin seven years in Chongqing. The IR of HAV was decreasing year by yearand most occurred in March-April. The IR of male (9.71/100,000) washigher than female (4.84/100,000). The number of35-39age groups wasthe largest (1,827cases,12.64%). The highest IR in Chongqing was thesoutheast wing (11.46/100,000) while the lowest was one-hour economiccircle (6.15/100,000) by geographical distribution. Farmer (7,848cases,54.30%) was the most common occupation followed by students (2,091cases,14.47%) and housewife and unemployed (876cases,6.06%).ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12model was the optimal prediction model and theabsolute mean value of the relative error was11.51%.A total of208,553HBV cases were reported, of which104cases weredead in seven years in Chongqing. The IR of hepatitis was decreasing yearby year and no significant seasonal distribution. The IR of male(134.18/100,000) was higher than female (75.95/100,000). The number of35-39age group was the largest in male (18,044cases,13.41%) while 20-24age group in male (10,104cases,13.66%). The highest IR inChongqing was the northeastern wing (144.68/100,000) while the lowestwas southeast wing (75.81/100,000) by geographical distribution. Farmer(91,932cases,44.08%) was the most common occupation followed bystudents (26,086cases,12.51%) and housewife and unemployed (17,697cases,8.49%). ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)12model was the optimal predictionmodel and the absolute mean value of the relative error was8.03%.A total of10,970HCV cases were reported, of which11cases weredead in seven years in Chongqing. The IR of hepatitis was increasing yearby year and no significant seasonal distribution. The IR of male(6.80/100,000) was higher than female (4.26/100,000). The number of35-39age groups was the largest (2,202cases,20.07%). The highest IRin Chongqing was one-hour economic circle (8.29/100,000) while thelowest was southeast wing (1.32/100,000) by geographical distribution.Housewife and unemployed (3,397cases,30.97%) was the most commonoccupation followed by farmer (2,302cases,20.98%) and worker (740cases,6.75%). ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12model was the optimal predictionmodel and the absolute mean value of the relative error was17.12%.A total of1,723HEV cases were reported, of which1case was dead inseven years in Chongqing. The IR of hepatitis was increasing year by yearand most occurred in March-May. The IR of male (1.26/100,000) washigher than female (0.47/100,000). The number of35-39age group was the largest in male (159cases,12.56%) while50-54age group in male (53cases,11.60%). The highest IR in Chongqing was one-hour economiccircle (1.11/100,000) while the lowest was southeast wing (0.27/100,000)by geographical distribution. Farmer (594cases,34.47%) was the mostcommon occupation followed by retired personnel (212cases,12.30%) andworker (199cases,11.55%). ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12model was the optimalprediction model and the absolute mean value of the relative error was50.33%.A total of8,342no-typing hepatitis cases were reported, of which7cases were dead in seven years in Chongqing. The IR of hepatitis wasdecreasing year by year and most occurred in April. The IR of male(5.27/100,000) was higher than female (3.14/100,000). The number of35-39age groups was the largest (1,072cases,12.85%). The highest IRin Chongqing was one-hour economic circle (4.67/100,000) while thelowest was southeast wing (2.32/100,000) by geographical distribution.Farmer (3,504cases,43.51%) was the most common occupation followedby housewife and unemployed (907cases,10.87%) and worker (888cases,10.64%). ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12model was the optimal prediction modeland the absolute mean value of the relative error was10.38%.Conclution: The reported incidence of viral hepatitis in Chongqingwas decreased year by year. HAV、HBV and no-typing hepatitis weredecreased while HCV and HEV were increased year by year. HBV is still the subject of viral hepatitis in Chongqing. Male young people were proneinfected with viral hepatitis, and the most common occupation was farmersin five type hepatitis, but except for HCV, at the same time, the areas withthe highest IR were not all the same among the five type of hepatitis. Therewere no significant seasonal distribution in HBV and HCV, but theincidence rate were high in of about April in HAV、HEV and no-typinghepatitis.The effect of ARIMA models were good in viral hepatits、HAV、HBVand no-typing hepatitis. It was less effect in HCV and HEV，especially inHEV, but it is still modeling success, the forecast results still play areference role. The models predict that the total viral hepatitis、HAV、HBVand no-typing hepatitis showed a decreasing trend, HCV had a relativelyslowly rise trend, and HEV was decreased firstly and then increased, andthe fluctuation was relatively large. |
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