A Study On Meteorological Inducers And Prediction Model For Three Weather Sensitive Diseases In Summer Of Beijing

Heatstroke, infectious diarrhea and urticaria are common weather sensitive diseases in summer of Beijing area, which effect human health and labor efficiency seriously and even lead to death. The morbidity and spread of these diseases are closely related to meteorological condition. Therefore, based on the data of heatstroke cases, infectious diarrhea cases and urticaria cases of top three hospitals from2008to2012in Beijing (23612cases), the distribution characteristics of three diseases are analyzed detailedly. The distribution characteristics of meteorological factors are also analyzed by daily meteorological data, and on the basis of daily meteorological data, the accumulated meteorological factors are derived. The correlation between three weather-sensitive diseases cases and63meteorological factors are explored respectively and the key meteorological factors are chosen by using correlative analysis method. The exposure-response relationship between three weather-sensitive diseases numbers and different meteorological factors are fitted on the basis of generalized additive model (GAM), and the key meteorological factors on the effect of three diseases are evaluated quantitatively. The meteorological predict models of three weather-sensitive diseases are built respectively with multiple linear regression method, nonlinear fitting method and GAM forecast method in summer of Beijing. The optimal prediction models of three diseases are established by comparing the goodness of fit and forecast accuracy, and the heatstroke forecast model has put into operation. The index level of three summer weather-sensitive diseases are forecasted with the purpose of providing scientific basis for disease prevention and health security. The main results are as follows:(1) Heatstroke, infectious diarrhea and urticaria are belong to high incidence of summer weather-sensitive diseases in Beijing. Heatstroke cases are mainly distributed in the month from May to September each year, and in these months July is the peak period of heatstroke incidence, followed by June and August. The age of20to59 years old is the peak incidence of heatstroke population, and the male heatstroke patients are more than female in all ages generally. Infectious diarrhea cases throughout the year, and the peak period of incidence is from June to August. There is no significant gender difference in infectious diarrhea patients, and the higher risk concentrated in the age of20to29years old. The number of urticaria rise monthly since March, the peak incidence is from June to August, then the number of cases decreased month by month. There is little gender difference in urticaria patients too, and the cases mainly concentrated in18-40age group.(2) The correlation analysis results show that:temperature is the decisive factor which causes heatstroke, and the most significant positive correlation between the two days accumulated temperature and heatstroke casae in summer. The correlation between the number of infective diarrhea and temperature is higher than other meteorological factors, in which the cumulative average temperature of seven consecutive days presents the most significant positive relative. The cumulative Water vapor pressure and air pressure are significantly correlated with the number of infectious diarrhea. For urticaria, the lowest temperature has the most significantly correlated with patients number, and the relationship between the number of urticaria and the cumulative effect of relative humidity, vapor pressure and average wind speed present significant correlation.(3) The quantitative assessment results show that:The rise in temperature and vapor pressure will increase the risk of heatstroke, however, the air pressure and precipitation increase will reduce the risk of heatstroke; the temperature is the most critical meteorological element that impact the heatstroke, the risk of heatstroke increased significantly when the maximum temperature is higher than32℃and the average temperature is higher than27℃; the risk of heatstroke will increase by31.17%if the average temperature rise1℃. Moreover, the rise of temperature and vapor pressure also increase the risk of the infectious diarrheal disease, but the increase of air pressure and wind speed will lower the risk; still the average temperature has the largest impact on infectious diarrhea, when25℃≤temperature≤27℃the risk of infectious diarrhea increase8.01%if the average temperature rise1℃. Furthermore, the rise in temperature, relative humidity and vapor pressure will increase the risk of urticaria, but the increase of average wind speed can reduce the risk; the lowest temperature is the most important meteorological elements that influence urticaria disease; when the lowest temperature is higher than23℃, the disease risk add3.49%if the lowest temperature rise1℃. In addition, the synergistic effect of temperature and humidity on three diseases indicate that the temperature and humidity increase at the same time will rise the diseases risk.(4) The fitting and forecast results of multiple linear regression method, nonlinear fitting method and GAM forecast method for the three diseases show that: GAM prediction model are the optimal model which the fitting accuracy reach69.57%,71.01%,77.17%and the forecast accuracy attain66.30%,66.30%,75%respectively. This forecast method has better forecast capacity because the forecast accuracy is closed to the fitting accuracy, which can be used in operational forecast.