Evaluation Of Cultivated Land System Vulnerability And Analysis Of Influencing Factors In Sanmenxia

Cultivated land is the most frequent space for the interaction between surface layer and human beings,and it has spatial heritability.In fixed space,cultivated land,on the one hand,undergoes natural evolution,and receives human transformation.As a system with both natural and social attributes,the changes may be either cause a benign and sustainable development,or a deteriorating and disorderly development.This kind of uncertainty gives mankind the property of management for the transformation of cultivated land.The management of cultivated land is target-oriented.Under the current limited cultivated land resources,the ultimate goal of the regulation and control of cultivated land resources is to ensure the sustainable use of cultivated land,improve the utilization efficiency of cultivated land resources scientifically and ensure food production.The research on the vulnerability of regional cultivated land system can understand the operation situation of the target regional cultivated land system and provide the basis for the management department to formulate and implement the cultivated land management policy.Sanmenxia is located in the transition zone between the north and the south and the Yellow River delta,and it is the transition zone of the loess plateau in Henan Province.It has both natural and humanistic particularity.Therefore,the vulnerability assessment and influence factor analysis of the cultivated land system in Sanmenxia are carried out for the discussion about the pressure of the local cultivated land resources,the resistance and resilience of the cultivated land system,so as to understand the dynamic characteristics and change mechanism of the vulnerability of the cultivated land system and provide reference for the formulation of sustainable utilization strategy of the cultivated land resources.This paper reviews the research progress on the vulnerability of cultivated land system in academia,expounds the theoretical basis of the vulnerability evaluation,and defines relevant concepts.Based on the establishment of the VSD assessment framework for the vulnerability of the cultivated land system,the dynamic changes of the vulnerability of the cultivated land system in Sanmenxia and the factors affecting the vulnerability were studied,including three aspects:(1)Analysis of the time series and spatial variation of the vulnerability of cultivated land system in Sanmenxia from 2000 to 2016;(2)The bivariate correlation analysis and contribution model were used to analyze the main factors causing the change of cultivated land system vulnerability from the municipal and county levels.(3)Based on MATLAB software,the grey prediction model is used to predict the future changes of the cultivated land system vulnerability in Sanmenxia.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The vulnerability index of the cultivated land system in Sanmenxia is generally declining.The vulnerability level of the cultivated land system drops from high to low,and the vulnerability of the cultivated land system is significantly reduced.The cultivated land system vulnerability in Sanmenxia decreased rapidly in fluctuation.From 2000 to 2010.The change in the vulnerability of cultivated land system tends to be flat with little fluctuation from 2011 to 2016.Specifically,the exposure of the cultivated land system in Sanmenxia showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2016,the disturbance to the cultivated land system increased,and the risk level of the cultivated land system increased.During 2000 to 2016,the sensitivity of the cultivated land system in Sanmenxia has great fluctuations,the overall decrease is large,and the stability of the cultivated land system becomes stronger.The adaptability of the cultivated land system in Sanmenxia increased from 2000 to 2014,but decreased significantly in 2015 and 2016.(2)The distribution of cultivated land system vulnerability is uneven in all counties and districts of Sanmenxia.The cultivated land system vulnerability is relatively high in central and western,and relatively low in southern.From 2000 to 2016,the pattern of vulnerability changed from "high in the Middle East and low in the southwest" to "high in the Middle East and low in the southeast".At the county level,there are two characteristics of the vulnerability change of cultivated land system,one is the continuous reduction,and the other is the fluctuation.The cultivated land system vulnerability decreases continuously and obviously in hubin district,Mianchi and Lushi,and fluctuating in Shaanzhou district and Lingbao.The variation of cultivated land system vulnerability in Sanmenxia varies greatly from county to county.The average value of cultivated land system vulnerability in lakeside area is the highest,followed by Yima and Lushi.The change of cultivated land system vulnerability is the most obvious in Mianchi county and Lushi county.The change trend of Mianchi is the most obvious,Shanxian area is the second,and the change trend of Yima is the least.(3)According to the correlation analysis,factors such as human social and economic activities and the state of cultivated land system have a strong correlation with the changes in the vulnerability of cultivated land system in Sanmenxia.The factors affecting the vulnerability of cultivated land system in each county are significantly different.Shanxian.Province is greatly influenced by cultivated land utilization and ecological environment protection.Lingbao is greatly affected by meteorological disasters and urbanization.Yima is greatly affected by the decrease of cultivated land,the pollution of cultivated land and the input of land regulation.Mianchi is greatly affected by drought and other agricultural disasters.Lushi is greatly affected by the intensity of cultivated land use and ecological environment.(4)According to the predicted results,the vulnerability of the cultivated land system in Sanmenxia will show a steady decline from 0.362 to 0.268,and the vulnerability level of the cultivated land system will decline steadily,indicating that the cultivated land system will be in a relatively healthy operating state in the next five years.In the future,the use and protection of cultivated land in Sanmenxia should be based on the current status of the operation of cultivated land systems,formulate scientific management strategies according to the main factors of reducing the vulnerability of cultivated land system in different counties and districts,give full play to the government's management functions,and formulate cultivated land protection policies according to local conditions.