| The agricultural production sector is the most sensitive and vulnerable sector to respond to climate change.In recent years,climate change,especially climate factors like temperature and precipitation,have had a significant or potential impact on agricultural production.Studies have shown that widespread crop failures worldwide are mainly caused by a series of random climate changes,in which corn is the crop most vulnerable to climate variation,and 18% of the annual corn yield change is the result of climate variation.In the background of climate change,the change of light,temperature,water,heat and other environmental factors has a direct impact on the growth and development of crops;further,soil fertility as the core of agricultural production material and energy cycle,the change of soil fertility also indirectly affects the crop productivity.As we all know,land is the basis of agricultural production.Rational use and management of land has always been an important subject of agricultural production sector research,but also the key to maintain the healthy development of the agricultural sector.The improvement of soil fertility is of great significance to increase crop yield per unit land area and improve agricultural production efficiency.Therefore,strengthening the use of climate adaptation measures in agricultural production from the level of soil fertility management can effectively enhance the resilience and income generation of agricultural production sectors to cope with climate change."Big country small farmer" is our country’s basic national condition and agriculture condition all the time.At present,the basic pattern of agriculture in our country is still unchanged,and it will not change for the time being.Especially in China’s ecologically fragile areas,climate change not only increases the risks and uncertainties faced by regional agricultural production,but also exerts great pressure on regional small farmers to produce food,which seriously affects their survival and security.As the direct decision makers,participants and stakeholders of agricultural production,the adoption of climate adaptation measures by small farmers in the agricultural production sector is the key to improving the climate adaptation capacity of the agricultural production sector.Therefore,it is very important to study the adoption behavior of climate fluctuation adaptation measures for small farmers to improve the climate resistance of agricultural production in China,to ensure food security and to maintain social stability.First of all,with the help of the research group of "Research on Rural Sustainable Livelihoods Strategies to Combat Climate Change ",this study takes Zhenxiong County,Zhaotong City,Yunnan Province,and Nayong County,Bijie City,Guizhou Province as the research areas to obtain the relevant data of soil fertility management measures to deal with climate fluctuation,and to identify the behavior characteristics of farmers’ comprehensive soil fertility management measures.Secondly,the daily value data set(V3.0)of Chinese surface climate data developed by the real-time database of the National Meteorological Information Center is used to identify the climate(temperature and precipitation)fluctuation characteristics of the key period of maize growth in the study area;Then,by analyzing the internal logical relationship between the comprehensive soil fertility management measures of farmers and the climate fluctuation in the key period of regional corn growth,the Craggit two-stage regression model and the Poisson count regression model were constructed.The correlation between climate fluctuation and the behavior of small farmers’ comprehensive soil fertility management was analyzed empirically.Finally,according to the results of model regression,this paper summarizes the research conclusions,and puts forward relevant policy suggestions to improve the ability of regional agricultural production departments to deal with climate change effectively.The main contents of the thesis are as follows:The first chapter is the introduction.First,the research background of this paper is expounded,and the research problems of this paper are elicited.Secondly,the research objectives and significance,research contents and research methods of this paper are put forward,and the research ideas of this paper are clarified.Finally,the possible innovations and shortcomings of this study are also explained.The second chapter is literature review.Through a systematic review of the current domestic and foreign literature research results,this paper analyzes the current academic research results on climate fluctuation and the behavior of farmers’ comprehensive soil fertility management measures,and analyzes the shortcomings of the current research.And draw out the research content of this paper.The third chapter is related concepts,theoretical basis and mechanism analysis.Firstly,the concepts of "climate fluctuation "," comprehensive soil fertility management measures" and "climate fluctuation adaptive behavior" are clearly defined to establish the basic conceptual support for this study.Secondly,using the theory of production function,farmers’ production behavior and farmers’ climate change adaptive behavior,this paper constructs the framework of behavior logic analysis for farmers’ comprehensive soil fertility management measures under the background of climate fluctuation,which provides a theoretical basis for the empirical study of the relationship between climate fluctuation and farmers’ comprehensive soil fertility management measures.The fourth chapter is empirical research.An empirical study in this paper consists of two parts: the first part,by setting Craggit two-stage regression model,The correlation between climate fluctuation in the key period of maize growth and the adoption behavior of comprehensive soil fertility management measures(including "whether to adopt" and "degree of adoption ")was analyzed.By using the Poisson count regression model,the second part empirically analyzes the response of farmers’ comprehensive soil fertility management measures to the climate fluctuation in the key period of maize growth.At the same time,the comprehensive soil fertility management measures of farmers adopt the number of species as another form of measuring the behavior tendency of farmers to the comprehensive soil fertility management measures.The study of farmers’ ISFM measures "adopting species number" to respond to climate change is also a robust test of whether the comprehensive soil fertility management measures "adopt" and "degree of adoption" behavior on the climate fluctuation response of maize growth critical period.The fifth chapter is the research conclusion and policy suggestion.Based on the empirical study of the relationship between climate fluctuation and the behavior of farmers’ comprehensive soil fertility management,the following conclusions are concluded:(1)Farmers’ adoption of ISFM measures is affected by climate fluctuations in historical periods.Empirical analysis shows that the adoption of comprehensive soil fertility management measures(including "whether to adopt "," the degree of adoption" and "the number of species adopted ")and the historical period(1-3 years ago)maize growth critical period climate fluctuations show a significant correlation;(2)Climate fluctuations in the near future promote the adoption of ISFM measures for farmers.Empirical analysis shows that the recent(1 year ago)maize growth critical period of climate fluctuations and farmers planting in the current comprehensive soil fertility management measures showed a significant positive correlation;(3)The short-sighted nature of small farmers and the time delay of comprehensive soil fertility management measures reduce the enthusiasm of farmers ’comprehensive soil fertility management measures.The empirical analysis shows that there is a significant negative correlation between the application of organic fertilizer,the use of improved seeds and the number of species used in comprehensive soil fertility management measures during maize planting and the climate fluctuation in the critical period of maize growth in the long term(3 years ago);(4)To some extent,the adoption of comprehensive soil fertility management measures by farmers is influenced by their own resource endowment characteristics.Among them,the economic characteristics of peasant households and the characteristics of cultivated land management have the most significant influence on the adoption of comprehensive soil fertility management measures.Finally,according to the results of the above empirical analysis,this paper summarizes the conclusions of the study,from the aspects of the dissemination and reception of climate information in agricultural production,the improvement and extension of comprehensive soil fertility management measures,and puts forward relevant policy suggestions for promoting the comprehensive soil fertility management measures of regional farmers. |
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