Research On Hog Fluctuation And Prediction In Anhui Province

Located in the hinterland of East China and adjacent to the river,Anhui Province has obvious advantages in location,abundant agricultural resources,and a large proportion of agricultural products.It is a typical agricultural province and a major animal husbandry province in China.The pig slaughter volume ranks 11 th in the country..Looking at the data of pigs in Anhui Province for two or three decades,pigs in Anhui Province have periodic fluctuations in their slaughter and inventories.It is very important that determine the cycle,analyze the causes of the fluctuations,and predict the future pigs' slaughter and inventory in order to avoid “pig cycle”.This paper analyzes the background and significance of pig production research in Anhui Province,and analyzes the current status of pig production in Anhui Province.Based on the summarization of domestic and foreign literature,the data from pigs from 1989 to 2016 in Anhui Province were used to identify pigs using HP filter.The periodical analysis of the amount of slaughter and the amount of on-site inventory were conducted.After the cycle of live pigs was determined,a qualitative analysis of the cycle generation was conducted from four aspects of consumption,hog prices,pig disease,and government policies.The resident population,urban per capita income and rural per capita income in Anhui Province are used to represent the consumption factors in Anhui Province.The current live pig price index,the previous hog price index,and the last pig hog inventory amount are used as the surrogate factors for hog prices.The year of the epidemic disease is set to 1;if it does not occur,0 is taken;for the enactment policy,1 is not promulgated.Using the above indicators,a multiple regression model was used for empirical analysis of pig production in Anhui Province.Finally,the BP neural network model was used to predict the hog production and inventory of pigs in Anhui Province from 2017 to 2023.The results of the study showed that the pig production in Anhui province experienced 6 and 7 cycle fluctuations during this period,with an average of 3 to 4 years of cyclical changes.The qualitative analysis of live pig production uses multiple linear regression to further analyze the causes of fluctuations in live pig production.The model conclusions show that consumption levels,pig price and pre-price,pig disease,and government policies have certain fluctuations in live pig production.Impact.According to the model prediction,the slaughter in Anhui in 2017 decreased,and the actual data also declined.Finally,based on the research of the full text,the suggestions are given.