Non-agricultural Employment,Pig-breeding Decision And Household Income

Because of the wave of price,environment and subsidy policy and so on factors,so many scattered farmers drop out of the pig breeding,and make the supply of pork and pork products instable,and have a influence on resident consumption.So,is the decision of drop out of pig breeding made by scattered farmer is a rational choice or only the herd effect?For one thing,the scattered farmers with low breeding skills will drop of from the big breeding,and transfer the labor force to the non-agricultural employment that can make high nonfarm income.For another,the scattered farmers with good breeding skills,drop out of from the pig breeding follow the masses blindly,because of disturb of exotic environment.His incomes from the nonfarm apartment maybe lower than before.So,whether scattered farmers can increase incomes by dropping from the pig breeding?To answer the above question,we extract 5 cities:Chengdu city,Ziyang city,Mianyang city,Dazhou city and Nanchong city in Sichuan province,those 5 cities as the sample,and make a household survey about the family employment situation,the pig breeding circumstance and the family income,and replenish partially missing data by telephone visit in 2016,get 560 questionnaires,550 effective questionnaires.We make a empirical analysis by 543 questionnaires among them.At first,base on the instrumental variable Probit model,inspect the nonfarm employment influence of the pig breeding of scattered farmers;then,based on endogenous switching regression model,dispel endophytism and sample selection bias,discuss the mechanism of action and action ways of how the big breeding decision influence the family income;at last,use the sample regression and endogenous transformation Prodit model proving the robustness of the result.The result shows:(1)nonfarm employment is the major reason that influence the pig breeding decisions,nonfarm employment index improve probability of drop out of pig breeding evidently,but because we didn't solve the problem of endophytism,its influence will be underestimate;(2)the negative selection bias influence the decision made by farmers,endogenous transformation regression results show that the income of scattered farmers lower than the average are prefer to drop out of the pig breeding;(3)pig breeding decision has different influence on the out of tolerance farmers,the behavior of quit improve their family income,continuous behavior also improve their family income;(4)farmers' rational choices exist side by side with farmer differentiation,farmers' rational choices show that continuously breeding and begin to have a unite breeding with companies,other farmers,breeding areas,form different organic combinations.Withal,we give the following advices:(1)the pig breeding policy can't be a "rigid uniformity";(2)regular a good mechanism of pig breeding,make a suitable scale concentration of pig breeding;(3)improve the employment market in rural area,improve family income structure;(4)provide differentiated institutional arrangement of pig breeding subsidy,ensure the profit of scattered farmers;(5)Improve the price formation mechanism of pork and its products and promote the reform of the supply side of pigs.