Study On Schedule Risk Management Of Electrical Installation Project Of HTR-PM Nuclear Island

The pebble moduled high temperature gas cooled reactor(HTR-PM),as a type of reactor with the characteristics of four generations of nuclear power,has many advantages,such as high safety,simple system and high power generation efficiency,at present,Saudi Arabia,Jordan,Indonesia and other countries have signed memorandum of cooperation with China,which has a good promotion prospect.Nuclear power plant construction investment is large,construction cycle is long,the risk factors are extremely complex,Reactor type nuclear power plants such as AP1000 and EPR all lead to the bankruptcy and reorganization of the parent company due to poor schedule control.High temperature gas cooled reactor nuclear power plant is quite different from the mainstream PWR nuclear power plant in many aspects,such as process system,key equipment,etc.No matter in design work,procurement work or on-site construction,the schedule management is faced with great pressure of schedule lag,which brings great challenges to schedule risk management.Nuclear island electrical installation project not only involves a large amount of work,but also involves important systems and equipment such as DCS(distributed control system),nuclear measurement,penetration and so on,which plays a decisive role in the progress of the project.At present,most of the research on schedule risk management of nuclear power plant project is focused on PWR nuclear power plant,but the research on schedule risk management of HTR-PM nuclear power plant is relatively scarce.Only S nuclear power plant is the first nuclear power plant in the world.There is no other mature nuclear power plant for reference.In this thesis,the development of HTR-PM nuclear power at home and abroad and the schedule risk management of nuclear power project construction are briefly summarized by using the literature research method,By comparing the electrical installation characteristics of HTR-PM and other nuclear power plants,the unique electrical installation work of HTR-PM nuclear island is extracted.Using the methods of historical literature analysis,expert interview and questionnaire to identify the risk factors that may cause schedule lag,and to rank the identified risk factors and establish causal relationship,the Bayesian network model is constructed by using the established causality,which can be used to predict the progress lag of the electrical installation project of the nuclear island of the high temperature gas cooled reactor.With the help of the functions of the model,such as reverse reasoning,sensitivity analysis and maximum cause chain analysis,this thesis analyzes the factors that cause the delay of the electrical installation project of the nuclear island of HTR-PM.According to the analysis results,reasonable suggestions are given for the schedule risk management of the electrical installation project of the nuclear island of HTR-PM.The model of Bayesian network schedule risk management is validated in s nuclear power plant project,and according to the calculated results,the corresponding countermeasures are put forward.The Bayesian network model established in this thesis can provide an effective predictive management tool for the project schedule risk,which has a strong practical significance for preventing the project schedule lag.