Research On The Mechanical And Electrical Installation Construction Safety Performance Leading Indicators And Forecasting Application

The characteristics of subway installation of mechanical and electrical engineering, such as short construction period, large engineering quantity, complex system and multi cross construction led to many construction safety hidden trouble. While the construction safety performance indicators are of high predictive value, therefore, the study of the installation project construction safety performance of subway e-lectromechanical leading indicators to predict the construction safety risk of the subway electromechanical installation engineering has important academic value and application value. This thesis follows the research thinking of combining theory and practice, analyses the subway mechanical and electrical installation engineering construction safety performance leading indicators, adopts literature study, questionnaire, and the Bayesian network method, etc. The concept, connotation and index system of construction safety performance leading indicators have been studied in the paper:This paper firstly introduces the background and significance of the research, summarizes and review the research status of construction safety performance leading index at home and abroad, which form the basic thinking of study, design the framework, research methods and technical route of this paper. Secondly, it describes the differences and connections between the attempted events, incidents and accident explains the importance of attempted event for the prevention of construction safety accidents, introduces the related concepts of Bayesian network, learning inference method. Thirdly, using the concept of performance, construction safety performance and construction safety performance leading indicator as a starting point, the paper recognizes the leading indicator of subway elect-rmechanical installation engineering construction safety performance and the attempted event of subway electromechanical installation engineering construction safety by literature analysis and expert discussion method, constructs the leading index system of subway electromechanical installation engineering construction safety performance. Based on it, it constructs subway mechanical and electrical installation construction safety risk prediction model.Finally, through the analysis on the mechanical and electrical installation project of Nanjing Metro Line M bid of N case, the paper constructs Bayesian network structure of the project construction safety risk prediction model. From the probability of occurrence of index factor, the corresponding construction safety probability of the accident can be calculated, through the corresponding sensitivity analysis of prediction model Bayesian network, it concludes the construction safety status and construction safety factors which should be of high attention of the period.