Research On Risk Management Of High-rise Residential Development Projects In Northern Xinjiang

In order to meet the needs of people in a limited space,the height of the dwelling continues to extend upwards.Therefore,building high-rise dwellings has become a trend.However,high-rise residential development has the characteristics of large investment,long cycle,and complicated construction technology.At the same time,the country’s increasingly strict market regulation and control environment have greatly increased the risks faced by developers.Especially for northern Xinjiang,the particularity of its geographical location determines that its market is lagging behind and lacks a more appropriate risk assessment system.In this context,it is of great significance to carry out risk management research on high-rise housing in northern Xinjiang.This paper takes the northern Xinjiang high-rise residential buildings as the research object,carries on the risk identification and analysis,then establishes the risk evaluation model based on the information entropy theory and cloud model theory,and finally verifies and proposes risk countermeasures through examples to reduce the risk of project risk.It provides a certain reference for the risk management of real estate development enterprises in northern Xinjiang.This article first defines the concepts of northern Xinjiang,high-rise residences,and high-rise residential development.It also elaborates risk management theory,information entropy theory and cloud model theory,laying a theoretical foundation for risk management of high-rise residential development projects in northern Xinjiang.Then through a lot of literature reading,using literature frequency statistics method and expert survey method,23 risk factors were identified,and on this basis,a risk evaluation index system including 7 first-level indicators and 23 second-level indicators was constructed.Secondly,based on the AHP method to calculate the weights,the difference coefficients in the entropy weight method are used to modify the weights,and the multiplicative integration method is used to calculate the combined weights.On this basis,a risk evaluation model based on the combination weighting-cloud model is established,and the characteristic parameters of the cloud model of each indicator are calculated and the cloud map is generated using MATLAB software.Finally,taking H high-rise residential development project as an example,using Yaahp software to establish a hierarchical structure of the project,and using AHP-entropy weight method to obtain policy risk,market risk and economic risk are the risks that developers need to focus on.It is concluded from the cloud map in the cloud model that policy risk,market risk,economic risk,operation management,and technical risk are all medium risks,and social risks and natural environmental risks are lower risks.At the same time,compared with the results obtained by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the feasibility of the built model is verified,and the risk response measures of policy,market,economy,technology and operation management are proposed.This article attempts to combine the cloud model with the entropy weight method and the AHP method to establish a risk evaluation model.The results obtained can reflect the subjective color of the evaluator,and can also reflect the degree of variation and impact of the risk index,and can reflect randomness and ambiguity.The results of risk assessment are displayed more intuitively.By combining with actual cases and comparing with the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,the model is verified to be operable and feasible,which provides a new method and ideas for the risk management of northern Xinjiang real estate enterprises.