Research On Investment Evaluation Of China's Photovoltaic Project Based On Chinese Certified Emission Reduction Mechanism

Under the background of the continuous expansion of the photovoltaic industry and gradually participating in the CCER mechanism of the carbon trading market,the economics of photovoltaic projects have gradually become the key factors for the photovoltaic industry to gradually get rid of government subsidies and rely on technological progress and market improvement.Therefore,exploring the investment status and investment expectations of China's PV projects under the voluntary emission reduction mechanism has important reference significance for determining the impact of the carbon trading mechanism on China's PV industry and guiding the long-term development of China's PV industry.The study identified the main influencing factors(such as carbon trading market price,unit installed power generation,unit installed cost,maintenance cost,etc.)and their values,which affect the cost and benefit level of PV projects,and separately for distributed PV projects and PV power plant projects.A measure of internal rate of return,payback period,and cost of electricity.The research results show that under the current CCER mechanism and PV policy environment,the internal rate of return of all types of PV projects exceeds 8%,the investment recovery period is less than 8 years,and the cost of electricity has basically dropped below 7 yuan,but among them,The benefits of CCER mechanism increase are limited.The main factors affecting investment income are still the level of policy subsidy.However,with the gradual reduction of PV subsidies and the gradual improvement of the carbon trading market,the impact of CCER mechanism on China's PV projects will be Increasingly large;research continues to use the real option-Monte Carlo simulation method,taking into account the uncertainties in the development of the photovoltaic industry(including carbon trading prices,subsidy levels,initial investment costs and on-grid tariffs),the photovoltaic industry in 2018 The investment conditions in-2030 were discussed,and the sensitivity analysis was carried out in combination with the level of uncertainty of the uncertain factors.It is believed that the current carbon trading under the CCER mechanism has limited impact on the optimal investment time,but when the future carbon trading price gradually rises Its impact on PV project investment will be greater and greater.On the whole,under the current CCER mechanism and PV policy conditions,the investment income level of China's PV projects is more optimistic and has better investment economy;considering the uncertainty of policies and market conditions,the current investment environment cannot make long-term investment environment.Maximizing investment returns still does not attract immediate investment.In order to attract more and faster market capital and ensure the long-term market-oriented development of China's PV industry,the government needs to gradually withdraw its industrial support while actively establishing a nationally unified and globally-connected carbon trading market,replacing it with carbon trading.Or partial replacement of government subsidies;at the same time,it is necessary to solve the problem of financing difficulties for small and medium-sized photovoltaic projects,and promote the development and improvement of the financial industry financial market.