Evaluation Of Photovoltaic Power Generation Project Based On Real Option Method

Photovoltaic power generation technology has a very good prospect in reducing carbon emissions,developing renewable solar energy and reducing environmental pollution.However,the initial investment of photovoltaic power plant project is huge,the construction cost is higher than that of traditional power plant,the payback period of investment capital is also very long,and the uncertainty is high.Therefore,a reasonable evaluation of the value of photovoltaic power generation projects and the selection of appropriate investment opportunities can not only improve the project income,enhance the project value,but also reduce the investment cost.At present,the mainstream traditional evaluation methods for photovoltaic power generation projects,such as discounted cash flow method,can not reflect the value of options in photovoltaic power generation projects,including the value generated by uncertainty and investment management flexibility,but the real option method can make up for the shortcomings of traditional methods in this respect.Based on the theory and method of real option method,this paper discusses the option attribute and value structure of photovoltaic power generation project and evaluates the project value.The dominant part of the value structure of photovoltaic power generation project is the generation income,and the implicit option value mainly includes the value of environmental protection,the value of national policy support,the value of technological innovation and the time value of delayed investment.Because of the high difficulty in quantification of national policy and technological innovation,the following three aspects are adopted in the value structure of photovoltaic power generation project in this paper: generation income Second,the benefits of carbon trading market(i.e.environmental protection value),third,the time value of investment uncertainty.These three aspects are all subject to the geometric Brownian random walk process.Therefore,according to the value composition and evaluation characteristics of photovoltaic power generation project,and considering the particularity of its delayed investment,this paper intends to simulate the random movement process through Monte Carlo simulation method in real option method,and build the value evaluation model of photovoltaic power station project with the time value of delayed investment as the core Taking the s photovoltaic power station in Alxa Right Banner of Alxa League in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as an example,the specific value evaluation analysis and the research on the best investment opportunity of the project are carried out in order to contribute to the value evaluation and investment decision-making development of similar projects such as photovoltaic power generation.