| In recent years,with the rapid development of China’s economy and the acceleration of urbanization,urban rail transit,as a large transportation infrastructure that can effectively alleviate traffic congestion and improve the image of the city,has been constructed on a large scale throughout the country.However,in the construction process of urban rail transit projects,there are many uncertain risks,which are not completely isolated,but some objective conduction effects.Therefore,making deep analysis on the mechanism of risk conduction and putting forward precautionary countermeasures in urban rail transit projects,which will help urban rail transit builders to better implement risk management work.Firstly,this paper applies literature research to identify urban rail transit project risks,and finally identifies 27 risk factors and summarizes them into five types of risks: policy and law,management,economics,construction,and natural environment.At the same time,the mechanism of risk conduction is revealed through theoretical research,that is,the process of risk conduction is the process in which the risk energy released by the risk source depends on a certain carrier and spreads to each functional node in the project along a certain path.Secondly,based on the risk conduction mechanism,this paper analyzes the conduction relationships between the five types of risk.Further,this paper constructs a risk conduction model by using the structural equation model,in order to realize the theoretical analysis process from language description to modeled expression.Through analysis,it is found that the actual data obtained from the questionnaire survey had a high degree of fit with the risk conduction model and the model fitting worked well,thereby verifying the correctness of the theoretical analysis results.The research results show that:(1)Management risks and natural environmental risks have a significant conduction effect on construction risks;(2)Policy and law risks,economic risks and construction risks have a significant conduction effect on management risks;(3)Policy and law risks and natural environmental risks have a significant conduction effect on economic risks.Finally,the risk prevention countermeasures based on risk conduction are proposed,that is to reduce the risk energy released by the risk source,reduce the conduction efficiency of the risk conduction carrier,and improve the anti-risk ability of the risk receiver.Meanwhile,specific risk prevention measures are given for these three risk prevention countermeasures.The research results of this paper can help the constructors of urban rail transit project to better understand the nature,law and possible consequences of risk conduction phenomena.The risk prevention countermeasures and measures proposed in this paper will help the project constructors to improve the risk management plan.In addition,the research model in this paper also provides some reference value for other large-scale project risk conduction research. |
